6 min readBitcoin (BTC) enters Q2 at a crossroads. After closing March as its first positive month in six (+1.4%), the broader picture remains deeply uncertain. Q1 2026 ended with a nearly 24% decline, Bitcoin’s worst opening quarter since 2018, and its second consecutive quarterly loss for the first time since 2022. With US equity markets closed today for Good Friday, Bitcoin trades in a thin liquidity environment at around $66,600, roughly 47% below the all-time high of $126,198 set in October 2025.
More concerning than the price action itself is the shift in institutional behaviour behind it. Here’s what’s changed heading into April:
- Strategy has paused buying. The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder did not purchase any BTC during the week ending March 29, according to the company’s latest SEC 8-K filing. That ends a 13 consecutive week buying streak that added roughly 90,000 BTC to its treasury. Michael Saylor skipped his usual Sunday “orange dot” post on X, and Strategy also didn’t sell any shares that week. The company holds 762,099 BTC at an average cost of approximately $75,700 per coin, meaning Bitcoin now trades well below Strategy’s cost basis
- ETF flows have reversed. March started strong, with weekly inflows peaking at $767 million in the second week. But momentum collapsed through the month: the third week slowed to just $95 million, and the final week flipped to $296 million in net outflows, led by $202 million in redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT on March 27 alone. For the full quarter, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted approximately $500 million in net outflows, the second-worst quarterly result since their January 2024 launch
The combination of fading institutional demand, a thin holiday weekend, and unresolved geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict creates a fragile setup heading into April. The question now is whether the range that has contained Bitcoin for two months can continue to hold.
For more on the institutional outlook and on-chain data behind the bottoming debate, see our recent analysis: Has Bitcoin bottomed? Goldman Sachs thinks so as smart money quietly accumulates
4-hour chart
Bitcoin remains trapped in a two-month range between $63,000 and $73,000, with the latest sell-off pushing price below the range equilibrium at $68,000 as RSI fails to reclaim the 50% level.
Bitcoin has been trapped inside a well-defined range between approximately $63,000 and $73,000 for two months. Price spent the majority of that time oscillating around the range equilibrium zone near $68,000, but the latest sell-off, triggered by Trump’s address on the Iran war, has pushed BTC below that midpoint.
The failure to reclaim the equilibrium zone is the most notable development on this time frame. Yesterday’s sell-off drove price down to $65,700 before a partial recovery, but the bounce stalled below the $68,000 level. The RSI confirms the weakness, having failed to reclaim the 50% line, which typically signals that momentum remains with sellers in a range-bound market.
There is one subtle counterpoint worth watching. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator is trending gently higher even as price has drifted lower, suggesting there could be some underlying buying interest near the range lows. However, this should be interpreted with caution. A/D readings tend to improve near established support zones simply because dip buyers step in at predictable levels, and it does not necessarily indicate the start of a larger accumulation phase.
With US equity markets closed for Good Friday, trading volume is likely to be lighter than usual, which can amplify moves in either direction. Thinner order books mean that any headline, particularly around the Iran situation, could trigger outsized volatility.
Key levels to watch:
- ~$68,000 — range equilibrium and the line in the sand for short-term direction. A reclaim of this level would put bulls back in control of the local structure
- $72,000 to $73,000 — range highs and the major resistance zone. A breakout above this area would be the first meaningful signal of a trend shift and could open the path toward the $76,000 region
- ~$63,000 — range lows and the critical support floor. A break below this level could trigger a momentum-driven move lower and could open the door to a retest of the $60,000 psychological level
- A decisive break above or below the range boundaries will most likely dictate Bitcoin’s next major directional move. Until then, the market remains range-bound, and patience is the dominant strategy
Trading involves risk.
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