Brent crude posts its biggest monthly gain on record as the Iran crisis deepens. These are the key levels to watch

Brent crude is closing out March with its biggest monthly gain on record, surging roughly 55 to 60% as the Iran crisis enters its fifth week with no resolution in sight. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, Houthi militants have widened the conflict by launching attacks on Israel, and Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters over the weekend. Meanwhile, President Trump has signalled he may be willing to end hostilities even if the strait stays closed, while simultaneously threatening Iran’s oil infrastructure. For oil traders, it has been a rollercoaster. A single Trump post on social media can move Brent in a matter of hours, only for the move to reverse days later as the situation shifts again.

Here’s what you need to know:

• Brent’s ~55 to 60% March rally is the largest monthly gain since the contract’s inception in 1988, surpassing the previous record set during the 1990 Gulf War
• Price has reclaimed the $100 to $103 zone that previously acted as resistance, now being tested as support
• The 4-hour uptrend structure remains intact, with the ascending trendline holding and price back above the 20 and 50 EMAs
• RSI has re-entered its bullish range, supporting the case for continuation
• The April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is the next major catalyst
• Geopolitical headlines remain the dominant driver, and traders should expect continued volatility in both directions

In our last article on Brent crude, we covered the sharp selloff that followed Trump’s announcement of a pause on strikes against Iran. At the time, we noted that despite the volatility, the broader structure was fairly clean, with a well-defined range and clear levels to watch. The $100 to $103 zone was highlighted as the key resistance that bulls needed to reclaim. Following reports that the US was deploying thousands of additional troops to the region and the conflict continued to escalate, oil rallied hard and reclaimed that level. Let’s look at where things stand now.

4-hour technical analysis

The 4-hour chart shows Brent back above the 20 and 50 EMAs after reclaiming the $100 to $103 former resistance zone as support, with the ascending trendline from late February still intact and RSI re-entering its bullish range.

The 4-hour chart shows Brent trading around $106, having recovered strongly from the pullback that followed Trump’s pause announcement. The ascending trendline that has defined this uptrend since late February remains intact, and price is once again trading above both the 20 EMA (~$105) and the 50 EMA (~$102). This is significant because the dip below both moving averages during the Trump pause was the first time price had traded beneath them during this entire rally.

The key level to watch on the downside is the $100 to $103 zone. This area, which previously acted as resistance, is now being tested as support. As long as price holds above this level, the path of least resistance looks to remain to the upside, with a potential retest of the $114 area, near the highs of this move. A break above that level could open the door to a move toward the resistance zone where Brent peaked earlier this month.

On the momentum side, the RSI has re-entered its bullish range after dipping during the selloff, currently sitting around 58 and trending higher. This suggests that buying pressure is reasserting itself following the brief shakeout.

Key levels to watch:

• $100 to $103 — former resistance, now support. Holding above this zone keeps the bullish structure intact
• $105 — the 20 EMA and immediate short-term support
• $114 — the next resistance target and the area near the recent highs
• $92 to $95 — the deeper support zone if the $100 level fails, aligning with a broader support area visible on the chart

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