5 min readBitcoin is hovering around 95K as it continues in consolidation mode for a fifth straight session, fluctuating in a narrow range as the market waits for the next move. Long consolidations usually help accumulate strength for further movement, with the next trigger likely to be this week’s data.
Bitcoin is rangebound on Wednesday ahead of a string of key U.S. economic data, including GDP for Q1, which will provide insight into how the economy performed under the first three months of Donald Trump’s second term. Expectations are for modest growth of 0.4%, down from 2.4% in Q4 2024.
Core PCE figures, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, will also be released later today. They are expected to show that inflation eased 0.1% monthly, down from 0.4%, on an annual basis. Core PCE is expected to cool to 2.6%, down from 2.8%. Cooling inflation and weaker growth could fuel Fed rate cut hopes and lift BTC.
Non-farm payrolls on Friday are also expected to add 129k jobs, down sharply from prior months. The data comes after JOLTS job openings hit an 18-month low in March, falling to 7.19 million, even before Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. US consumer confidence plunged to a 5-year low.
Active addresses suggest demand is returning
On-chain data shows an increase in daily active addresses. According to data from IntoTheBlock, the daily active addresses of Bitcoin have witnessed a jump recently, suggesting that user activity has increased on the network. This increase has come after the cryptocurrency has witnessed a price rally. Generally, rallies end up being sustainable only when they attract user attention and increase on-chain activity, which gives the fuel for the rally to keep rising. Price increases that don’t go hand in hand with a rise in active addresses usually fizzle out before long.
Bitcoin vs Gold hints to further BTC gains
Despite soft economic data so far this week, safe haven Gold has pulled back further from its record high. Gold trades down 1.3% on a daily basis, extending losses from last week as hopes of a softer stance towards trade tariffs from Trump. While Gold has fallen almost 1.5% over the past 10 days, BTC has risen 12%.
Bitcoin’s performance against Gold is showing a breakout from the descending channel within which it has traded since the start of the year. This signals increased momentum for Bitcoin relative to Gold and could draw further funds into crypto. Historically, breakouts in the BTC/XAU chart have led to significant Bitcoin outperformance.
Following the breakout from the descending channel, the BTC/XAU ratio has also risen above the 50 SMA but is being capped by the 200 SMA. A break above here could see Bitcoin bulls gain momentum.
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