SOL breaks out -what’s driving these gains?

Solana has reached its highest level since February, rising to a high of 216 as the price extends its recovery from the August low. The price has rallied over 3% this week while Bitcoin is on track to book losses of 2.5%. Solana has outperformed across the month and is set to book gains of 22% in August, while BTC is on track to fall 2.75% this month despite reaching a fresh record high of 124.4k mid-August. 

The solid performance from Solana comes amid a combination of technical, fundamental, and macro factors.  

A dovish lean from Powell 

On the macros front, a dovish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium boosted risk assets. The prospect of lower interest rates is beneficial for risk assets owing to increased liquidity. While BTC has failed to benefit from the improving macro backdrop, other altcoins have and are also benefiting from a rotation out of BTC. 

SOL ETF optimism & corporate adoption 

Another major catalyst for SOL gains has been growing optimism surrounding the approval of US Solana ETFs. Major asset managers, including Grayscale and Invesco Galaxy, submitted filings for Solana ETF, leading to a surge in approval probabilities to open 90%. 

Meanwhile, corporate adoption has been another driver of SOL demand. Galaxy Digital, Multi-Coin Capital, and Jump Crypto are seeking to raise $1 billion to acquire Solana, creating the largest corporate treasury dedicated to the token to date. Meanwhile, Sharp Technology announced that it has priced a $400 million private placement aimed at establishing its own Solana-focused treasury strategy. Combined, these two efforts represent a potential $1.4 billion increase in demand for Solana, reinforcing scarcity. 

Solana’s institutional and corporate appeal is underpinned by its technological differentiation. In 2025, 7,500 new developers joined the ecosystem, and with 3.8 million active wallets per day, the network is outpacing its competitors in adoption and transaction volume. Decentralised exchanges (DEX) on Solana now account for 48% of retail crypto trading activity, underscoring the popularity of its user-friendly infrastructure and low-cost execution. 

Smart money inflows 

SOL has experienced large smart money inflows over the past day. According to Nansen smart money, which is known for making profitable bets, increased its exposure by $4.77 million, marking an almost 20% increase. This takes smart money holding SOL to $24.1 million, the highest among tracked assets. 

Spot investors have followed a similar pattern, adding $798,000 worth of SOL over the same period. Should this trend continue and SOL continue to be moved into private wallets, it would confirm bullish sentiment. 

SOL technical test 

SOL/US is breaking out of its bullish triangle pattern. The price has broken above 205, a resistance level that had been tested three times over the past six weeks. The breakout above 205, combined with the RSI above 50 and bullish crossover on the MACD, keeps buyers hopeful of further gains above 220 towards 265, the 2024 high. On the downside, a close below 205 could open the door to 184, the weekly low and May high. Below here 175, the rising trendline support comes into play. 

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