The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) topped Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt with 44.5% of the vote, exit polls show, up from 20.8% in the 2021 election. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives fell to 18.5%, but it remains unclear whether the AfD can govern alone or whether a "firewall" of rival parties will again shut it out.
AfD surges past its 2021 score
Exit polls from broadcasters ARD and ZDF put the AfD on course to win 44.5% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. That is up from 20.8% in the 2021 regional election. Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has led the state's coalitions since 2002, slid to 18.5%. The CDU had won 37.1% five years ago. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel hailed the outcome as "historic".
The Left party was projected to take 8% of the vote, down from 11% in 2021, while the Greens were seen at 8-9%, up from 6%. The left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was projected at 4.8-5%, close to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
Firewall still blocks a governing majority
Saxony-Anhalt's AfD branch has been classified as right-wing extremist by the domestic intelligence agency, and mainstream parties maintain a "firewall" policy ruling out coalitions with the party. The BSW is the only party that has not ruled out working with the AfD, but it also risks missing the threshold. Without an outright majority, AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund, 35, would struggle to enter government under the firewall. Falling short instead opens the prospect of complex coalition negotiations among the other parties, with one option being a minority government led by Schulze that would depend on tolerance from the Left Party, a model already used in neighboring Thuringia.
An AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt, a state of 2.1 million people, would mark the first time a far-right party has reached power in Germany's postwar history. Nationally, the result would give the AfD momentum ahead of elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern later this month. Saxony-Anhalt also serves as a test run for the AfD's ambitions in the 2029 federal election. The AfD's federal platform calls for tougher deportations, a "remigration" policy, restored ties with Russia and an exit from the Eurozone.
Sunday's result adds pressure on Merz, whose coalition government has struggled to revive growth in Europe's largest economy.
Sources: CNBC, Financial Times
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