Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter, citing high Treasury yields, a strong US dollar and expectations that rates will stay high for longer. They still expect a recovery in 2027, and central-bank buying lends support.
Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter because of high Treasury yields, a strong US dollar and expectations that rates will stay high for longer, a Reuters survey shows. They still expect a recovery in 2027.
The survey of 30 analysts and traders returned a median gold forecast of $4,495 per troy ounce for 2026, down from $4,509 estimated three months ago. The 2027 forecast is $4,650, compared with $4,610 in the previous poll.
Gold drops from its January record
Gold surged to a record $5,595 an ounce in January before tumbling to around $4,000. The Iran war drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher, strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion for investors.
Central banks and physical demand lend support
Bullion should remain supported by robust central bank purchases and physical demand. StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said that, absent a Black Swan, prices are likely to be underpinned by steady improved physical demand from India and China.
According to O'Connell, continuing purchases by central banks "are sending the markets a message about managing risk".
Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper expects prices to consolidate and recover in coming months as market focus shifts to de-dollarisation and currency debasement.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com
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