Anthropic's S-1 implies a gross margin of 85% for the first half of 2026, up from 12% a year earlier. The prospectus also warns that its operating margin is expected to fluctuate, affected by compute expenses and their timing.
Anthropic filed its public S-1 with the SEC on Oct. 26, giving investors a first look at its full financials ahead of a planned IPO. Revenue grew much faster than the cost of revenue, and the first-half figures imply a gross margin of 85%, compared with 12% a year earlier.
Revenue outpaces cost of revenue
Anthropic's revenue grew roughly 14-fold, from $1.2 billion in the first half of 2025 to $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. Its cost of revenue rose from $1 billion to $2.4 billion over the same period.
However, that metric does not capture everything. Model training falls under research and development, which totaled $9.7 billion in the first half of 2026. Fees paid to Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft to sell Claude on their cloud platforms sit under sales and marketing, where spending totaled $3.8 billion.
As a result, the article points to a more realistic profitability measure: the GAAP operating margin, which was 8% in Q2 2026.
Why the S-1 expects margins to fluctuate
The S-1 says Anthropic expects its operating margin to fluctuate, affected by compute expenses and their timing. The company contracts for compute 12 to 18 months ahead of delivery, so current costs reflect capacity ordered when revenue was a fraction of today's level. When large tranches of compute come online, costs land all at once, and margins could compress if revenue does not keep up.
Those commitments are large. Anthropic has about $417 billion in future minimum payment obligations for compute and infrastructure, and additional capacity it has ordered is forecast to add between $125 billion and $150 billion. Customer spending, meanwhile, is largely consumption-based and not tied to long-term contractual commitments.
The prospectus also flags other compute risks. Costs could rise significantly, and scarcity could become an issue if competitors outbid Anthropic for capacity. The company disclosed in its S-1 that it had requested more compute than its cloud partners were willing to provide.
IPO size and valuation
The company is reportedly looking to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Annualizing first-half 2026 revenue, a $2 trillion market cap would equal a valuation of about 63 times sales.
Source: The Motley Fool
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