AVAX is testing support near $9 after a 23% pullback, and a death cross keeps the rebound unconfirmed. Charles Schwab calls Avalanche a leader in institutional blockchains but warns that adoption may not translate into demand for the token.
AVAX is trading near $9.21 on the 4-hour chart, sitting on its most important support zone at $9.00-$9.20 after a 23% pullback from the late-September high of $12.01. A falling wedge pattern is set to resolve within days.
The test comes as Charles Schwab published an analysis of Avalanche and Chainlink on October 20. It names Avalanche a leader in institutional blockchains and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, while questioning whether that position will ever translate into demand for the token.
AVAX rallied on volume and pulled back without it
Between September 17 and September 29, AVAX rallied nearly 68%, climbing from $7.17 to $12.01. Over the following 23 days it gave back more than 23% of its value. Total volume was almost identical in both phases, about 84.8 million AVAX in the rally and 83.6 million in the correction, but the decline lasted nearly twice as long.
A death cross and a wall at $9.90
The 50-period exponential moving average ($9.79) has slipped below the 200-period average ($9.90), forming a death cross. On October 21, AVAX attempted a breakout but was rejected at the upper wedge line, where both averages also sit.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35, close to the 30 mark below which the market is considered oversold. To cancel the death cross signal, AVAX needs a 4-hour close above $9.80-$9.90. A decisive close below $9.00 would open the way toward $8.20.
Schwab questions whether institutions will lift AVAX
Schwab's analysts credit the network with capacity above 4,500 transactions per second and favorable tokenomics thanks to a 720 million maximum supply. However, an institution that launches its own chain can run nearly all of its activity outside the primary network, and those transactions do not generate the burned fees that create demand for AVAX.
On Schwab's valuation, AVAX carries a market value between 200 and 1,200 times the fees collected over the past three years, and those fees have been declining since 2023. Separately, Schwab's August 27 decision to add SOL, AVAX and LINK to Schwab Crypto would give clients access to AVAX trading at a 0.75% fee per trade.
Schwab has not set a launch date for AVAX trading and has reserved the right to delay or change its plans.
Source: Crypto News Flash
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