Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on September 4 that oil prices could fall by $40 to $50 a barrel once the US-Iran conflict ends. Applied to current Brent levels near $97, that would put a barrel in the $47 to $57 range, and Bessent linked the drop to an eventual easing of bond yields.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that oil prices could fall by $40 to $50 per barrel once the US-Iran conflict reaches a resolution. Applied to Brent crude levels near $97, that math would put a barrel somewhere in the $47 to $57 range, roughly half what markets have been pricing during the worst of the tensions.
Why Bessent sees a surplus coming
New oil production has been coming online globally, and the main thing keeping prices elevated is the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a significant share of the world's seaborne oil passes. Once that disruption lifts, bottled-up supply floods back into the market at the same time as the new production built up during the conflict, according to Bessent's argument.
The Treasury has already been managing supply during the conflict. It issued temporary authorizations to release roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian oil held in floating storage, to help cap prices and prevent a shock that would transmit too aggressively into consumer inflation. Bessent has framed the conflict's inflation effects as transitory: the price shock is conflict-specific, and once that variable is removed, the underlying supply picture takes over.
Bond yields and the inflation transmission
Bond yields have climbed to multi-year highs during this period of elevated energy prices. Bessent explicitly connected a drop in oil prices to a subsequent easing of those yields, which would matter for fixed income markets that have been under sustained pressure.
What has to happen first
The US-Iran conflict escalated in early 2026, with military actions accompanied by sweeping US sanctions on Iran's oil export revenues. At its peak, Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel, at times above $105, as markets priced in worst-case disruption scenarios around the Strait of Hormuz.
For market participants, the key question isn't whether Bessent's directional call is right — it's the timing and depth of any oversupply. Production that has been ramping up doesn't pause mid-ramp once a ceasefire is signed, and the 140 million barrels of Iranian floating storage adds to the supply stack as soon as those authorizations translate into deliveries.
Source: Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
