Bitcoin cleared the $85,000 sell wall that had capped its advance and touched $87,000, while a rare CryptoQuant accumulation signal and billions in call options point traders toward $90,000-$100,000. Underwater holder cost bases near $88,000-$95,000 and rebuilding leverage stand between the market and that target.
Bitcoin broke through the $85,000 sell wall that had stalled several earlier advances, registering an intraday high at $87,000 on Oct. 2. Glassnode said some of the resting sell orders were filled and the rest withdrawn, leaving a thinner concentration of asks around $87,000 and less visible supply just above.
A rare accumulation signal returns
Bands on CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Accumulation Trend chart have started contracting, a pattern that preceded two sharp advances in 2025. One contraction ran from April 17 to April 20, 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $84,000 before climbing toward $109,000; another appeared between March 5 and March 8 ahead of a separate advance.
These episodes are too few to make the contraction a reliable forecasting tool, but the pattern coincides with broader improvement in Bitcoin's market structure. Bitwise said this week that Bitcoin has reclaimed cost-basis thresholds it uses to flag risk-on conditions, including the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000, a true market mean around $77,000, and the average cost basis of spot ETF investors near $83,000. Bitcoin has also moved through Bitwise's $85,000 short-term holder realized-price band, pushing into territory where gains have historically been harder to sustain.
Underwater holders and options bets cluster near $90,000-$100,000
The loss of the $85,000 sell wall points Bitcoin toward another layer of potential supply: holders still underwater after months of losses. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost estimates that holders who bought 18 months to two years ago carry an average cost basis near $88,350, while the six-to-12-month cohort sits around $89,200 and has been underwater for close to a year. As the market nears these levels, some of these holders may sell near breakeven while others hold or add to lower their average cost — a split that will help decide whether the rally extends past $90,000.
Bitwise places further hurdles close by: a short-term holder reference level near $90,000, 1.5 standard deviations above realized price, and a two-standard-deviation level near $95,000. Bitcoin has closed above those thresholds on only about 3.8% and 1.7% of days, respectively, in the firm's historical sample. A separate Fibonacci framework the firm uses places levels near $92,000 and $100,000, and Bitwise described $90,000 to $100,000 as the next zone where several structural reference points converge.
Options traders are positioning for the same range. Deribit data show $2.1 billion of Bitcoin call exposure at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $100,000. Their eventual effect on the spot market depends on expiration dates and dealer hedging, but the positioning shows traders have put billions behind a move into that corridor.
Leverage rebuilds as the Fed outlook shifts
Bitcoin's open interest fell to about $52 billion as September ended, then climbed to roughly $56.2 billion in the first two days of October, CoinGlass data show. The roughly $4.2 billion increase coincided with Bitcoin rising from about $83,500 to briefly above $87,000, suggesting traders are rebuilding exposure after cutting positions into month-end. Rising funding, however, makes leverage costlier to hold and more vulnerable if the rally reverses.
The macro backdrop turned friendlier Friday after US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 economists had expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. The report pushed futures markets to place the probability of an October Fed rate increase below 20%, removing one threat to Bitcoin's advance even as the harder test — absorbing returning holder supply and increasingly expensive leverage — remains inside the crypto market itself. A sustained move through $90,000 would push Bitcoin into territory Bitwise already considers stretched. Failure to hold the advance would shift attention back to the $83,000 average ETF buyer cost basis, the first major downside level bulls would need to defend.
Source: CryptoSlate
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