Bitcoin has held between $83,000 and $85,000 for four days after last week's run from $76,000 to $87,000. On-chain data shows the asset shifting from an early bull market into a full bull regime, even as rising profit-taking flags risk of a deeper pullback.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been oscillating around $83,000 to $85,000 since the price dipped into that range on Wednesday, September 23. This four-day consolidation followed the prior week's move. Bitcoin had made a strong push from $76,000 to $87,000 in that stretch.
Uptober aligns with a regime shift
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out in a post on X that October has been bullish in 10 of the past 13 years for Bitcoin. September, historically a bearish month, was on track to end bullishly too, which could power a stronger October, or the "Uptober" seasonal effect, as Bitcoin transitions into a bullish regime.
Bitcoin has also been flowing out of exchanges, and nearly $3 billion moved into spot Bitcoin ETFs within ten days, both signaling strong demand. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the Adjusted MVRV 30-day/365-day moving average ratio crossed above its own 365-day moving average on August 20, marking an early bull market transition.
The ratio then climbed above the 1.0 baseline on September 20, marking a shift from early bull market to full bull market — the sixth such transition since 2012. Four of the five latest crossovers saw the bull phase end with Bitcoin trading higher than its entry price. The exception was August 2015, when the bull phase ended after just 16 days and BTC fell back into early bull territory.
The warning sign for Bitcoin
The recent rally pushed unrealized profit margins to 33%, the highest level since December 2024, while profit-taking selling spiked to 25,700 BTC, the highest so far in 2026. Analyst Julio Moreno noted that these factors are typical of a rally losing steam and at risk of a deeper correction.
Source: AMBCrypto
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