Bitcoin starts the last week of October fighting to hold $80,000 support ahead of a Fed decision and a round of US tech earnings. It is on track to end the month down 4%, and one analyst expects weakness through year-end.
Bitcoin (BTC) begins the last week of October fighting to hold $80,000 support, with US macro data and earnings reports due. The month-end close could leave it with a second red October in a row.
Markets expect the Fed to hold rates
The FOMC decides on Wednesday, and markets see over 90% odds that rates stay in their current 3.75-4% range. FedWatch data shows consensus favoring a 0.25% hike at the December meeting.
Brent crude reached $117 per barrel on Friday before dropping to around $110 on Monday. Economist Robin Brooks argued that even a rise to $125 would not force the Fed to change course.
Thursday brings the PCE index, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the market close on Wednesday. Amazon and Intel follow on Thursday.
Bitcoin breaks the Uptober pattern
CoinGlass data shows average October gains for BTC/USD of 26.1% since 2010. Bitcoin fell 3.9% in October 2025 and then lost another 17.5% in November. This year, it is on track to end October down 4% if the monthly candle closes near $80,000.
On Saturday, almost $150 million of long positions were liquidated over two hours as Bitcoin fell to $79,145. CoinGlass shows a $73 million wall of bids keeping price above $79,300, with asks centered around $81,000.
Analyst warns of weakness into year-end
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, described Bitcoin's trips to $87,000 in late September and early October as a "fakeout". He told X followers on Monday that BTC/USD should continue to see weakness through the end of the year.
The resistance zone around $87,000 holds the 2026 yearly open at $87,490 and the 20-month moving average at $87,165.
Source: Cointelegraph
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