Bitcoin's 30-day moving average has crossed above its 365-day moving average, forming a golden cross pattern that has preceded three of the asset's biggest historic rallies. The signal arrived the same week bitcoin pushed back above $87,000 after a much weaker U.S. jobs report cut the odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
Bitcoin's 30-day moving average crossed above its 365-day moving average this week, forming a golden cross for only the sixth time on record, according to Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He tracks the pattern using 30-day and 365-day averages rather than the standard 50-day and 200-day lines, since bitcoin trades around the clock.
Prior crossings split between short bounces and multi-year runs
Two of the five earlier crossings led to short-lived rallies of 17.7% and 85.3% before reversing, Woods said. The other three, however, kicked off the asset's biggest historic runs, with gains of 5789%, 645% and 353%. According to Woods: "the reversal looks complete and the risk-reward scenario is too good to ignore." Bitcoin would need a 48% gain to retest its old highs of $126,000, set in October 2025, and Woods pointed to early 2027 as a potential window for that retest.
Weak jobs report adds a macro tailwind
The technical setup lined up with a macro jolt. Bitcoin surged back above $87,000 on Friday, jumping from roughly $86,000 to an intraday high near $87,250, CoinGecko data cited by U.Today showed. The move followed a report that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, well short of the up to 90,000 jobs analysts had expected.
The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, another surprise to forecasters. A cooling labor market makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify further tightening, and futures markets now put the odds of an October hike below 20%, though the Fed is still expected to raise rates again in December.
Bitcoin Magazine separately reported the coin trading near $85,990 after a 2% jump over 24 hours, buoyed by steady ETF inflows alongside the jobs data. The outlet noted bitcoin has also risen more than 2% over the past week.
Sources: CNBC, U.Today, Bitcoin Magazine
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