Bitcoin is heading toward a second consecutive losing October as weak U.S. spot demand offsets renewed ETF purchases. CryptoQuant data shows a negative Coinbase premium and a lower Bull Score Index ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 decision.
Bitcoin is on course for a second consecutive October loss, challenging its "Uptober" reputation, as weakening U.S. spot demand offsets renewed purchases through exchange-traded funds. The Federal Reserve announces its decision on October 28.
According to crypto.news market data, Bitcoin dropped from about $83,600 at September's close to $79,200. It then recovered toward $81,500 on Wednesday, with three calendar days left in the month.
Five years of October gains end with a second loss
Bitcoin advanced 27.6% in October 2020, 40% in 2021, 5.5% in 2022, 28.5% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2024, according to historical figures cited in CryptoQuant's report. The cryptocurrency then lost approximately 3.8% in October 2025.
Including that decline, the 2020–2025 October average falls to approximately 18.1%. The article describes that figure as a historical description, not a forecast.
CryptoQuant finds weak U.S. demand despite ETF inflows
CryptoQuant's Coinbase Premium Index remained below zero throughout October and fell to minus 0.146 on October 24, its lowest reading since late June. The index compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase with offshore venues, and a negative reading does not prove that all U.S. investors were selling.
Apparent spot demand remained negative each day from October 14. The 30-day measure showed a shortfall of roughly 76,000 BTC by October 25.
ETF flows tell a different story. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF funds attracted $176 million on October 27, according to SoSoValue data, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $151.5 million. Those inflows followed roughly $773.5 million in combined withdrawals on October 22 and 23.
Bull Score Index falls as the Fed meets
Research head Julio Moreno said the firm's Bull Score Index had declined from 90 to 60. Six of the model's ten indicators remained bullish, however.
If Bitcoin weakens, Moreno identified the 365-day moving average near $77,585, the trader realized price around $74,041 and the 200-day moving average near $73,028 as reference points. Separately, CryptoPotato reports that a fall in the index to 50 or below would point to a more significant loss of strength.
Sources: crypto.news, CryptoPotato
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