Bitcoin traded at $83,428.53 on Thursday morning, up 2.4% over 24 hours but roughly 4.5% below its recent $87,374 high, as the daily chart stays constructive while shorter timeframes work through a pullback. Analyst Benjamin Cowen says the $83,000 level and this week's close could decide whether the rally continues or Bitcoin slides into another fourth-quarter drop.
Bitcoin sits near $83,428, up 2.4% in 24 hours after retreating from its recent $87,374 peak. The daily chart still reads bullish, but the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes have turned bearish, and the $82,800-$83,200 zone now serves as the immediate floor. Short-term control stays with sellers as long as price remains below the mid-$84,000s.
Cowen Calls the Setup "The Upside Down"
Analyst Benjamin Cowen has described Bitcoin's current structure as "The Upside Down," saying his long-standing bearish cycle thesis has not played out as expected. U.S. Treasury yields spiked past 5% to hit 5.15%, the Fed delivered a rate hike of 25 basis points, and the dollar index pushed higher — conditions Cowen expected to pull Bitcoin toward a deep October low near $44,000, echoing 2014, 2018 and 2022. Instead, Bitcoin surged 51% from $57,800 over three months to break above $87,000. According to Coinpedia: "When this has happened historically, we've been back in business."
Golden Cross Puts $83K in Focus
Cowen is watching Bitcoin's golden cross, formed when the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day average and generally seen as a bullish signal. History shows Bitcoin does not always rally right after a golden cross — it corrected first in both 2019 and 2023 before recovering. Cowen says Bitcoin needs to hold its 50-week moving average and keep posting higher weekly closes; if it stays above $83,000, the current structure could gain further confirmation, but a weekly close below that level could set up another Q4 decline.
A Mixed Q4 Record
Since 2013, eight of thirteen Q4 periods have finished positive for Bitcoin, while five were negative, leaving no clear signal for what comes next. Bitcoin enters the quarter after a 42.1% gain in Q3. Separately, former CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo has argued that rising U.S. debt and Fed rate hikes support Bitcoin's case as a scarce, digital form of gold, framing it as a potential future anchor for money.
Sources: Bitcoin News, Coinpedia Fintech News, Bitcoin Magazine
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