Bitcoin long-term holders are realizing moderate profits while exchange reserves fall and leverage eases, but analysts still call the recovery unconfirmed. Spot ETF inflows continue, yet on-chain data leave the demand picture incomplete.
Bitcoin long-term holders are currently realizing profits of roughly 72%, far below the nearly 350% level recorded in December 2024, according to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost's September 25 analysis. CoinGecko places BTC near $84,403, with a 24-hour range between roughly $82,941 and $84,843. BTC is up around 10.3% over seven days after the rebound from September's lower levels.
Long-term holders show moderate, not heavy, selling
Darkfost does not describe the current activity as aggressive distribution. He said long-term holders tend to react less to short price swings than short-term holders, making their realized profits useful for tracking selling pressure during larger market moves.
According to Darkfost: "LTH are known to be more stable and less sensitive to market movements than STH." His analysis noted the 72% figure does not mean long-term holders have sold 72% of their BTC — it measures the profit performance tied to coins being spent by that cohort. Darkfost's view is that holders could keep waiting for higher profit levels before heavier selling emerges, not a forecast that they will refuse to sell if conditions change.
Exchange reserves fall as Binance outflows accelerate
CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel reported 12,153 BTC in net outflows from exchanges between September 17 and 23, reversing the previous week's 6,142 BTC in net inflows. However, September 22 alone accounted for approximately 19,105 BTC in withdrawals, meaning net outflows did not dominate every session.
Exchange reserves fell from roughly 2.726 million BTC on September 21 to a provisional 2.698 million BTC on September 24, a decline of about 1.03%. A separate reading showed more than 13,800 BTC leaving Binance on its largest daily net-outflow pace since 2023, with reserves falling from around 705,000 BTC to 685,000 BTC over four days.
Easing leverage and funding remove some pressure
Bitcoin open interest fell from approximately $29.34 billion on September 21 to a provisional $26.29 billion on September 24, a 10.4% decline that came as BTC pulled back from its recent high. CoinNiel cautioned that open interest is measured in dollar terms, so part of the drop can come from price changes rather than closed positions. Funding rates cooled too, easing from 0.00777% between September 17 and 23 to a provisional 0.00570% on September 24.
Spot demand remains the unconfirmed piece
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received another $191 million on September 24, extending their net inflow streak to six sessions, with BlackRock's IBIT taking in roughly $163 million and Fidelity's FBTC about $12.86 million. That followed larger inflows earlier in the week — $999 million on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22, and $346.98 million on September 23 — before daily inflows moderated. CoinNiel still calls the recovery unconfirmed because ETF flows represent only one part of total spot-market activity, and he is watching whether exchange withdrawals persist and spot buying becomes clearer.
Bitcoin's derivatives market faces another test on September 25, with roughly $18.1 billion in combined BTC and ETH options scheduled for quarterly expiry and Bitcoin call open interest concentrated around the $90,000 and $100,000 strikes.
Source: crypto.news
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