Bitcoin slipped 0.8% to about $79,176 as analysts expect the price to stay locked between $78,000 and $82,000 until the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $986.9 million last week, but analysts say the Fed meeting and upcoming inflation data will likely decide which way the range breaks.
Bitcoin holds inside a tightening range
Bitcoin was trading near $79,176 at the time of writing, down 0.8% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The asset moved between a low of $78,707 and a high of $80,494 during the period, while trading volume increased nearly 30% to about $24.4 billion.
The retreat followed another failed attempt to hold above $80,000. Sellers stepped in as the price approached $80,500, keeping BTC inside the $77,200–$82,100 range identified by Bitfinex analysts, who described the current structure as consolidation with an upside bias rather than a confirmed breakout.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, expects even tighter trading before the Fed announces its next interest rate decision. According to Ko: "compression into a tight range, capped around $82,000", with support at $78,000–$79,000 and a directional resolution once the Fed is out of the way.
ETF inflows support the price near $80,000
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $986.9 million in net inflows during the week ending Sep. 4, taking the three-week total to roughly $3.8 billion, according to Ko. Institutional demand has helped Bitcoin remain near $80,000 even as markets raised their expectations for another Fed rate increase.
However, Ko said three weeks of positive flows are not enough to confirm a sustained accumulation period. He argued that continued purchases during flat or falling prices would provide stronger evidence of allocation demand than inflows that follow a rapid rally, since Bitcoin gained 25% in August.
Fed decision and CPI could resolve the range
Interest-rate expectations remain the main external test for Bitcoin ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sep. 15–16. Markets are considering a 25-basis-point increase from the current federal funds target range of 3.50%–3.75%, Ko said.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish tone during his Jackson Hole speech, after which CME FedWatch probabilities for a September increase climbed to around 66%. Stronger August employment figures renewed the case for tighter policy, as nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, according to figures cited by Bitfinex.
US inflation data will provide the next evidence for policymakers. The Producer Price Index is due Sep. 10, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Sep. 11 and the Fed decision on Sep. 16. The two-year Treasury yield recently moved above 4.34%, while Ko placed the 10-year yield near 4.8%. Higher yields can reduce demand for assets that do not pay interest by giving investors access to stronger returns from US government debt.
Source: crypto.news
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