Bitcoin traded near $79,100 on Tuesday, unable to hold $80,000, with three market-moving dates landing inside eight days: jobless claims, the August CPI print, and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Fed funds futures now put roughly 57% odds on a September hike, up from 34.8% in late August, while spot bitcoin ETFs continue absorbing steady inflows.
Three dates now separate bitcoin from a resolution
Bitcoin slipped about 1.5% to near $78,800 late Monday after briefly trading above $80,400, remaining stuck in the range it has occupied. Three dates stand between the price and a break either way.
U.S. weekly jobless claims arrive on Sept. 10, the August consumer price index follows on Sept. 11, and the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its rate decision on Sept. 15-16. The jobs and inflation data stand to reprice hike odds before officials say anything at all, so the market's view of the Fed will likely shift twice ahead of the meeting itself.
On Investing.com's five-hour chart, bitcoin was last quoted at $78,417, hovering just above support at $77,500. If that floor breaks on a five-hour close, the site's analysis points to downside toward $75,740, $74,085, and $72,878.
A hike, not a cut, is now the debate
For most of the past two years, the argument centered on how fast the Fed would cut. Now it concerns whether a rate hike is coming instead. The federal funds target sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. In late August, futures pricing implied a 65.2% chance the Fed would hold there, against 34.8% odds of a hike to 3.75%-4.00%.
That balance has since flipped. As of Monday, fed funds futures assigned roughly 57% probability to a hike at the September meeting, per CME FedWatch data. A hike would tighten financial conditions into a market that has already run hard, while a hold, or softer inflation on Sept. 11, would remove a weight that has capped every rally attempt since August.
There is precedent for caution. Of the 2026 FOMC decisions through August, three marked clear bearish pivots for bitcoin, with roughly $300 million to $500 million in mostly long positions liquidated around each announcement.
ETF inflows have stayed steady through the stall
Inflow data has held firmer than the price. Spot bitcoin ETFs closed a recent session with $101.25 billion in net assets after taking in $174.60 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $117.38 million and Fidelity's FBTC at $57.22 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $3.575 billion over 30 days, and August produced roughly $3.5 billion in net inflows, the strongest month of 2026 for the funds.
Institutional allocation has therefore kept building through a period when the price has gone nowhere, which is why dips have stayed shallow even as every push toward $82,000 has failed.
The technical range still has to break
Resistance sits in the $81,000 to $82,000 zone, the ceiling that has rejected repeated attempts; a close above $82,000 would open $85,000 as the next objective. On the downside, first support runs from $77,000 to $78,000, with the 20-day moving average near $75,500 as the next reference point if that band gives way.
The Investing.com analysis flags $77,500 as the level to watch on a five-hour close. It notes the 200-period moving average near $70,620 still defines the broader uptrend. The relative strength index sits at 40.05, hinting at oversold conditions. Bitcoin gained close to 25% in August and has spent September giving none of it back while adding nothing, a pattern that usually resolves violently.
Sources: Bitcoin News, Cryptocurrency News
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
