Bitcoin holds the $80,000 area, where Glassnode estimates the average cost of US spot ETFs and corporate treasuries. ETF inflows slowed by 95.6% in a day, and Friday's inflation data arrives before the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
Bitcoin holds the $80,000 area, where Glassnode places the estimated average acquisition costs of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded corporate treasuries. ETF inflows slowed by 95.6% in a day, after Farside Investors recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 19 and $23.2 million on Oct. 20.
Buyers gather near the cost basis
Glassnode's Oct. 21 report shows the Oct. 15 selloff closing hourly near $80,100, briefly below its estimated ETF cost basis of about $81,500. Corporate treasuries in its coverage hold coins at an average cost near $80,200.
Above $80,000, Glassnode finds overhead supply between $85,000 and $87,500. Below it, a liquidation cluster sits near $79,600, and the True Market Mean is near $77,600.
Inflation data lands before the Fed
A $26 billion five-year TIPS auction on Thursday, then flash PMIs and final University of Michigan expectations on Friday, arrive before the Fed's decision. September CPI reached 3.7% annually, and the preliminary Michigan survey put one-year expectations at 4.7% and longer-term expectations at 3.5%.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters survey expect a hold on Oct. 28. Hotter inflation readings could lift short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar. According to Glassnode, the two-year yield stood near 4.8% on Oct. 20, up more than a percentage point in 2026.
What breaks the range
If Michigan expectations hold at or below the preliminary readings, PMI price components ease, the two-year yield falls and the dollar stays flat or weaker, Bitcoin has room to test $85,000 to $87,500.
If expectations come in above the preliminary readings, PMI prices run hot, the two-year yield and the dollar climb, and ETF flows turn negative, the replenished bids face a real test. A close below $80,000 would put the $79,600 cluster first, and the $77,600 True Market Mean next.
Source: CryptoSlate
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