Bitcoin tested its May high near $83,000 ahead of a weekly close that analyst Benjamin Cowen says will decide the asset's direction through the end of 2026. The move broke the classic four-year cycle pattern, and Cowen is telling investors to react to the chart rather than forecast it.
Bitcoin pushed into its May high around $83,000 this week, and analyst Benjamin Cowen unveiled an updated strategic model for the fourth quarter as the asset tested that level. He is urging investors to abandon forecasting and instead respond to the chart's current structure.
A broken four-year cycle
Bitcoin's move above its May high on the weekly timeframe broke the classic four-year cycle pattern traders have used to time the asset for years. According to Cowen, the current weekly candle's close will activate the main trigger determining Bitcoin's direction through year-end.
Two scenarios for the close
Cowen's framework hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold its current price levels once the week closes. If it closes and holds above the May peak, that would strengthen buyers' position and set up an uptrend through the fourth quarter. A move back below the May high, however, would mark a major fakeout, triggering the seasonal correction typical at year-end, though not a drop to new cycle lows.
React, don't predict
Cowen stressed that trying to predict Bitcoin's exact direction is counterproductive right now. According to U.Today: "You don't have to predict what happens; I think reacting is better in this case". He still points investors toward dollar-cost averaging through the second half of the year, leaning on historical midterm seasonal tendencies to build positions through the volatility.
Source: U.Today
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