Bitcoin hit its low of $57,850 on July 1, 125 days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, unlike the lows of 2015, 2018 and 2022, which came after the vote. CoinDesk's analysis suggests the pattern reflects bitcoin's own market cycles more than an election effect.
U.S. midterm elections are 10 days away, and bitcoin is approaching a period that has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms. This year, however, the recovery suggests the timing could differ.
Past lows followed the vote
Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, shortly after the preceding midterms. Those lows arrived approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.
Weakness also showed up before the vote. Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote.
This year's low came in July
Bitcoin's lowest price so far this year came much earlier. It touched $57,850 on July 1, some 125 days before the Nov. 3 election, and had recovered to around $81,455 by Oct. 22, roughly 40% above that low.
Bitcoin fell about 6% over the past 30 days, yet over 90 days it remained up 26%.
Crypto Briefing, citing the research it reviewed, puts the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000. It adds that a sustained move below that level around the election could signal that volatility is picking up.
Tech stocks show a less consistent pattern
Technology stocks have also weakened around midterms. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, and dropped 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote. But QQQ gained 17% over the six months before the 2014 midterms, so the pattern is not entirely consistent.
Bitcoin and QQQ are both down roughly 6% over the past 30 days, while QQQ gained 3% over 90 days. CoinDesk concludes that the comparison suggests bitcoin's midterm weakness reflects its own market cycles more consistently than an election effect.
Sources: CoinDesk, Crypto Briefing
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