Bitcoin posted its second-best third quarter on record, and Ethereum had its strongest Q3 ever. But Bitcoin closed Q4 red in both 2024 and 2025, and a key stablecoin liquidity gauge has only just turned positive again — so the rally's real test is still ahead.
Bitcoin just delivered its second-best Q3 in history, while Ethereum posted its best Q3 ever. That sounds like the market is back. Yet Q4 still has plenty to prove, because Bitcoin ended Q4 red in both 2024 and 2025, while Ethereum also had a red Q4 in 2024 and only a barely positive one in 2025.
A Liquidity Signal Turns Positive
There is, however, a liquidity signal emerging. RugaResearch said in a CryptoQuant post that USDT's 60-day supply change closed September at +$505 million, its first reading above zero in more than three months. On a monthly basis, USDT supply increased about $450 million.
That is positive, but the number remains small next to the $5.7 billion hole seen earlier. The 60-day reading had bottomed at -$5.7 billion on July 13, and its 30-day average hit -$5.4 billion on July 29 before climbing every day since.
Minting Still Lags the Rebound
However, there is an important catch. Of the $541 million improvement seen over the final three days, only about $17 million came from new USDT minting. Most of the increase instead came from early-August burns dropping out of the calculation, though the underlying trend has still improved.
Bitcoin climbed from roughly $64,000 to $83,700 during the same stretch, even while the 60-day USDT change stayed negative — meaning the move happened without stablecoin growth behind it.
The Zero Line Could Decide Q4
If USDT minting keeps rising, additional liquidity could reinforce the existing trend. It is still early, though: the 30-day average remains at -$564 million. The number to watch now is zero.
Source: Coinpedia Fintech News
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