Brent crude has swung from roughly $60 a barrel at the start of 2026 to nearly $140 during the Middle East conflict, before settling near $95 today. Chevron and ExxonMobil say prices may still understate the on-the-ground situation, but analyst Reuben Gregg Brewer argues long-term investors should treat the swings as a normal energy-market cycle rather than a reason to chase or flee the trade.
Brent crude swings from $60 to near $140
Brent crude started 2026 at roughly $60 a barrel, then the Middle East conflict broke out and pushed prices to nearly $140. The rally then reversed, erasing about half the gain, before crude shifted higher again. Brent is now hovering around $95 a barrel.
Near term, the price direction depends on how the conflict develops. Motley Fool contributor Reuben Gregg Brewer writes that for long-term investors, however, the picture looks much the same as it always has: oil is a commodity driven by supply and demand, and imbalances between the two have historically pushed prices sharply higher and lower.
Chevron and Exxon say prices could still be understated
Chevron and ExxonMobil have both warned that oil prices may not be fully reflecting the on-the-ground situation in the energy sector, which would point to higher prices ahead if that view holds. Countries and companies are drawing down oil stockpiles to avoid disruption, and that effort could be helping to keep prices lower than the market's underlying volatility would otherwise suggest.
Brewer argues that long-term investors are better served by owning diversified oil majors than by trying to time the swings. Chevron and Exxon both carry conservative balance sheets, with debt-to-equity ratios of roughly 0.2x and 0.16x respectively, which lets each company borrow through downturns and pay down debt once the market recovers.
Dividends outlast the price cycle
That financial strength has kept both companies' dividends growing through past downturns: Exxon has raised its payout annually for 43 years, Chevron for 38. Exxon's current yield sits at 2.5%, against 3.3% for Chevron.
Brewer notes that both stocks currently trade at relatively high prices with correspondingly lower yields, and history suggests another energy downturn is likely at some point. Patient investors, he writes, tend to do better buying when short-term traders are selling into fear rather than chasing the current run-up.
Source: The Motley Fool
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