Silver calls from Deutsche Bank and StoneX moved from shortfall language to surplus language in early October. Both calls are forecasts, and the solar decline behind the bank's call is largely inside the shortfall forecast from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute already. The next test is expected in November.
Deutsche Bank and StoneX both moved from shortfall to surplus language in early October. Neither firm published how many ounces its surplus comes to, and the bank's surplus is for 2027, not this year. On the published figures, the calls are bad for sentiment over the next six months but do little to the physical balance unless solar demand falls well past 20%.
Silver has had a weak October. It fell about 6% on October 14 after US consumer prices rose faster than expected. Kitco's late-afternoon reading on Monday put silver at $56.93 and gold at $4,137.80, a gold-silver ratio of about 72.7.
Most of the solar fall is already counted
Deutsche Bank's head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, said Chinese solar silver demand is probably down by a third this year. The bank's reported figures put the global fall in solar silver use above 20%.
However, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute already forecast photovoltaic demand falling 19% this year to 151.0 million ounces. That fall sits inside their 46.3 million ounce shortfall for 2026. A fall of exactly 20% would take out only about 1.7 million ounces more than the survey assumes.
Where a surplus would have to come from
The bank also points to recovering vault stocks in London, large stocks in New York, rising inventories in Shanghai, and Indian imports running about a quarter below last year. It expects funds that hold physical silver to sell about 40 million ounces by the end of 2027, if past rate-rise cycles repeat.
StoneX said on October 6 that it expects a 2026 surplus of about five weeks of physical demand. It gave no ounce figure and did not say what it counts as physical demand.
Metals Focus and the Silver Institute are expected to publish their interim review in November, with a revised solar line and a revised shortfall. Until then, the surplus calls remain forecasts rather than measurements.
Source: Investing.com
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