Ethereum has recovered sharply from its June lows but keeps failing to clear $2.5K resistance, with today's rejection marking another attempt turned back. Taker-flow data shows aggressive sell orders slightly outweighing buy orders, suggesting the rally still lacks confirmation from spot or futures demand.
Ethereum was rejected at the $2.5K resistance zone again today, extending its consolidation below that level. The daily chart shows ETH has recovered from the $1.5K area, reclaiming the $1.9K zone before pushing above $2K and toward $2.5K.
Daily structure improves but resistance holds
The most important development on the daily chart is that price moved above the previous swing-high near $2.45K, creating a higher high after months of decline. However, ETH remains below the $2.5K zone after failing to clear it once more. Therefore, further upside may require a decisive daily close above that level rather than another rejection.
Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages have turned constructive, both sloping upward after being reclaimed. The 200-day moving average near $2K is the key support buyers should defend. A daily close above $2.5K would open the next swing high at $3.4K, while a rejection could send ETH back toward the $2K-$2.1K support region.
Four-hour chart shows a tight consolidation range
On the 4-hour chart, ETH's advance from roughly $1.9K to $2.5K came through an aggressive vertical move, and price has since consolidated between $2.35K and $2.55K. Rather than giving back the move, ETH has held above the prior breakout area for several weeks, with recent candles drifting toward the range's upper boundary.
The $2.4K-$2.5K area is the key near-term pivot: holding it would preserve the bullish structure and could set up another breakout attempt toward $2.8K before the larger $3.4K resistance. However, a loss of the $2.4K range low could trigger a deeper retracement toward the $2.25K order block. The 4-hour RSI remains constructive but has cooled from its recent spike, suggesting momentum is still positive without being as stretched as right after the breakout.
Taker flow signals caution
The Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio adds a more cautious note. Its 30-day moving average has again dropped below the neutral 1.0 level, hovering around 0.995, meaning aggressive sell orders have slightly outweighed aggressive buy orders across exchanges even as ETH holds near $2.5K.
The divergence does not invalidate the bullish technical structure, but it suggests the consolidation may need another wave of genuine spot or futures demand before ETH can sustain a larger breakout. A move back above 1.0 in the taker ratio alongside a decisive break above $2.5K would offer stronger confirmation for continuation.
Source: CryptoPotato
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