Ethereum posted its best quarterly gain since the start of the year, rising 70.8% in Q3 and outpacing Bitcoin's 42.71% gain over the same period. Whales are adding ETH exposure and the ETH/BTC ratio has climbed, but historical Q4 returns are weaker and a slowdown in spot buying could undo the trend.
Ethereum's rebound outruns its own history
Ethereum gained 70.8% in the third quarter, beating the previous high of 66.55% set in Q3 2025. The rally follows two weak quarters: ETH fell 29.26% in Q1 and 25.28% in Q2. According to CoinGlass data, the average quarterly return sits at 13.20%, making the Q3 rebound well above the norm.
However, Q4 has historically been softer for Ethereum. The median Q4 return has dropped to 0.36%, compared with a historic average of 16.97%. Therefore, whether Q3's momentum carries into the new quarter will decide if the recovery holds.
Whales add ETH exposure
Large holders are responding to the move. A wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 ETH, worth $356.2 million, into a new wallet. The transfer did not go directly to an exchange, so it does not show direct selling pressure — instead it shows capital moving into ETH after the quarterly gain.
Separately, another whale opened a $40.6 million ETH long and a $33.62 million Bitcoin short, a position that seems to target continued ETH outperformance against a weaker broader market. These moves suggest large holders are repositioning, though further transfers will determine if the shift continues.
ETH/BTC ratio tested after the rally
The ETH to BTC ratio rose from 0.0316 to a high of 0.0325 before retreating. Buyers defended 0.0319 and pushed the ratio back toward 0.0323. A continued climb would signal investors still favor ETH over BTC after the quarterly rally.
Derivatives data adds to that picture: Hyperliquid holds more than $3.1 billion in ETH open interest. Hourly funding sits near 0.00125%, pointing to longs in control without signs of extreme crowding. Less activity in the spot market, however, could reverse the trend and pressure ETH's relative performance.
Source: AMBCrypto
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