Galaxy Digital's head of research says Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and the asset is now in an accumulation phase. His case rests on chart, onchain and macro data, while Bitcoin still trades near $80,000 in a choppy market.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, argued in a report published Monday that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June. According to Thorn: "now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin." Galaxy and Thorn both disclose that they hold Bitcoin.
The call arrives as Bitcoin struggles for direction. It traded at around $80,000 on Thursday, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low. On Sunday, Bitcoin briefly slipped to about $79,700, according to CoinGecko.
Charts and onchain data point to a bottom
Thorn's case starts with the price charts. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before reclaiming it in September, and the week ended Oct. 18 marked its fifth straight weekly close above that line. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more four times, and in each case the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year.
The halving cycle points the same way. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving, and Thursday was day 916. The latest downturn was also the shallowest on record, a 53% drop compared with declines of 77% to 93% in past cycles.
Onchain data appears to back that up. For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin's market value never fell below its realized value, and the ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10.
Selling pressure fades while macro bets grow
Selling pressure is fading, too. Long-dormant coins, unmoved for five years or more, have been sold at about 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, the report found.
Thorn also argued that the macro case has strengthened. Federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, its highest since 2007.
Where the call could fail
The bullish call lands in a choppy market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from a $1 billion three-day inflow streak to two days of heavy outflows this week, leaving October flows in the red.
Thorn's tripwire is a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently $76,540, that isn't regained within a month.
Source: Decrypt
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