Spot gold holds near $4,187.60 as markets price a likely December Fed hike and Treasury yields stay high. Central-bank buying is supporting the metal, and Wednesday's CPI report may decide which way it breaks.
Spot gold traded at $4,187.60 an ounce at 9:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, up $16.80 on the day. The metal sits pinned between a Federal Reserve that markets expect to hike again and a floor built by central-bank buying, Middle East risk and an oil shock.
However, the rate path weighs most heavily. Fed funds futures priced a 21% probability of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and an 88% probability by December. The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 5.22% on Tuesday morning, and gold pays nothing.
Wednesday's CPI decides which side breaks
Investing.com's analysis puts gold in a $4,134 to $4,227 band. A soft core print clears $4,227 and opens $4,277 to $4,300, while a hot one sends gold back to test the $4,090 two-month low.
September CPI is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The headline figure has upside risk, because WTI crude traded at $93.68 by 10:24 a.m. ET Tuesday. Core is the number that matters for the Fed, and a cooler reading would support gold through lower real yields and a weaker dollar.
Meanwhile, the dollar index closed Monday at 102.41 to 102.55 depending on the tape, near an 18-month high.
Central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2
The structural support is official-sector buying. Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, a 62% increase from a year earlier. That followed a first quarter revised down to 57 tonnes from an initial 244 tonnes.
Poland led first-half buying with 82 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan at 41 tonnes, China at 40 tonnes and Kazakhstan at 27 tonnes. Turkey was the largest year-to-date seller through June at 83 tonnes.
Intentions remain firm. A survey of central banks found 45% plan to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months, and only 1% expect to reduce them.
Source: Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
