Gold jumped past $4,251 on a softer-than-expected inflation report but gave the gain back within hours as the dollar and long-term yields kept rising. Silver and gold mining stocks showed similar weakness, while the US Dollar Index broke to fresh 2026 highs, pointing to further pressure on metals.
Gold rallied to $4,251 on Wednesday after Core PCE rose 3.0% year over year against the 3.3% expected, a downside inflation surprise that also cut October rate-hike odds from about 70% to about 37%. The gain did not hold.
Gold gives back a bullish surprise
By the close, gold futures settled at $4,186.70, up just $7 on the day, while spot gold kept falling and ended near $4,157. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.30%, its 2007 peak, and the dollar recovered against most majors. A softer Fed without a weaker dollar bought gold one morning, but it was not enough to sustain the move.
This morning brought hawkish data instead. Jobless claims fell to 197,000 and the ISM's prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, while the 30-year yield reached 5.66%, a 24-year high. Gold opened about $28 higher near $4,214 before fading to about $4,192 after the ISM report, holding above Wednesday's settlement even as the dollar rose.
Silver and miners show the same weakness
Silver settled Wednesday at $60.57, down $0.59 for its third straight lower settlement, though it outperformed gold this morning. The junior gold miners' ETF GDXJ rallied to about $116.70 on Wednesday, just $0.30 below its marked resistance near $117, then turned lower and closed at $113.95, down 1.6% on a day when gold futures gained 0.2%.
The dollar breaks to new highs
The US Dollar Index moved toward 102 this morning after a pullback that the analysis described as smaller and quicker than expected, and it broke above its May 2025 high to reach new 2026 highs. The piece argues that if this breakout is confirmed, it opens the door to much higher levels, and from a medium-term view the rally still has a lot of room to run.
Rising crude oil is feeding that dynamic. WTI settled Wednesday at $90.42, up $1.04, and traded above $92 this morning, with the ISM's prices-paid index climbing alongside it. Higher oil feeds hotter inflation data, higher yields and a firmer dollar — the combination working against gold's rebound.
Source: Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
