Guyana's crude output has passed 900,000 barrels per day and could top one million bpd by year-end, according to the country's Minister of Natural Resources. The boom has driven the world's fastest economic growth rate, but economists and residents are split over how evenly the oil wealth reaches ordinary Guyanese.
Guyana's oil sector is expanding at a pace few economies have matched. Crude production has already passed 900,000 barrels per day, and Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat expects output to surpass one million bpd by the end of the year. The country now ranks as South America's third-largest oil producer, behind Brazil and Venezuela.
GDP growth outpaces the world
The International Monetary Fund projects Guyana's economy will grow around 20.8% in 2026, driven by an expected 17.9% rise in oil production and projected oil revenues of $6.50 billion. Crude output already fueled GDP growth of 63.3% in 2022, 33.8% in 2023, 43.6% in 2024, and 10.3% in 2025. Guyana's Natural Resource Fund grew to over $3.1 billion by the end of 2024.
Economic growth reached 33% in the first half of 2026 according to government data, making Guyana the world's fastest-growing economy. The government now targets 1.3 million bpd of crude oil production by 2027 and 1.7 million bpd by 2030, with the $12.7 billion Uaru development among projects that could together help contribute to GDP reaching between $50 billion and $69 billion by 2030.
Between 2019 and 2025, investors spent an estimated $3.6 billion with local businesses, spreading the boom into construction, logistics, engineering, and financial services. Exxon's Guyana operations have also lifted the company's own output to its highest level in over 40 years, contributing an estimated 15% of its operating income.
Economists question Guyana's cut of the profits
Not everyone agrees the deal favors Guyana. University of Guyana economist Thomas Singh called the country's 14.5% take from the Exxon-led consortium's operations weak compared with the larger shares governments take in Norway and Brazil. Alistair Routledge, who leads Exxon's Guyana operations, countered that an escalation mechanism is in place to raise Guyana's proceeds over time.
With a population of just one million, Guyana's per capita oil reserves rank second highest in the world after Kuwait. The government has pledged to build 40,000 homes over the next five years and to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and transportation. Officials point to tax cuts, new bridges and highways, free college tuition, and one-off cash payments of roughly $500 to citizens as evidence that living standards are improving.
Not everyone feels the boom
Some Guyanese dispute that picture. According to Guyanese lawyer Romola Lucas: "We're sick of hearing about a boom that means nothing to most Guyanese." Raw sewage still flows through Georgetown's canals, and several families remain in unfit housing vulnerable to flooding or fires while armed muggings continue.
Business leader Gerry Gouveia Jr. said Guyana's leadership is trying to avoid the mistakes made elsewhere in the region, where governments have lost out on resource wealth through weak project stakes and corruption.
Source: Oilprice.com
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