Crypto contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume, driven mostly by short-term bitcoin bets. Most of Kalshi's September crypto volume came from 15-minute markets, while longer-dated odds point to a more cautious view.
Weekly notional volume in crypto-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion, with most of the money going into short-term bets on bitcoin and other crypto price moves. Crypto now ranks second only to sports on both platforms.
Bitcoin spent the past week chopping between roughly $80,000 and $84,000, a small range that can reward quick in-and-out trades.
15-minute markets drive Kalshi's volume
On Kalshi, crypto volume reached about $8.17 billion between Sept. 1 and 28, with roughly $7 billion, or 86%, coming from 15-minute markets. Crypto's share of Kalshi's total volume jumped from about 2.6% before the format launched to 14.5% in September.
Polymarket's U.S. platform moved even faster. Its 15-minute bitcoin markets did $91.76 million in their first full week, from Sept. 23 to 29. Daily volume climbed from $2.40 million to $27.71 million over the same stretch.
For many users, these contracts work like a simpler, capped-risk version of leverage trading, where one can be wrong but can't get liquidated.
Coinbase and Phantom route users to Kalshi
Coinbase's prediction market offering is powered by Kalshi, and wallet maker Phantom has started a staged U.S. rollout of in-wallet markets. Phantom's U.S. contracts cost $0.02 per contract, split between Phantom and Kalshi, plus a small network fee.
A recent Bloomberg analysis posited the push as a response to declining spot trading volumes, with exchanges looking for a new product that keeps retail users engaged.
Longer-dated odds tell a cautious story
Short-dated contracts are mostly about direction, not conviction. On options platform Derive, the implied odds of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Christmas rose from 9.7% to 12% this week, even as spot bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on Thursday.
Bloomberg pointed to legal challenges against sports contracts in several U.S. states, adding that their confluence could make crypto exchanges more cautious about expanding into prediction markets. Separately, the Pentagon banned military insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi after a $400,000 betting scandal.
Source: Bitcoin News
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