KeyBanc Capital Markets warns that Apple's Sept. 9 iPhone launch could weigh on the stock as investors focus on pricing and its effect on demand and margins. The brokerage keeps an Underweight rating and a $250 price target, compared with a reported share price of $324.96, and models total iPhone 18 builds down from a year earlier.
Apple's Sept. 9 iPhone launch event could become a negative catalyst for its shares as investors focus on pricing and the impact of higher costs on demand and margins, KeyBanc Capital Markets said.
Apple could raise prices broadly or selectively
KeyBanc said Apple could raise prices broadly to offset gross-margin pressure, potentially hurting unit volumes. According to KeyBanc: "sticker shock" could follow such an increase. Alternatively, selective price increases could put greater scrutiny on margins and raise the prospect of further increases later, KeyBanc said.
The firm maintained an Underweight rating and a $250 price target, compared with a reported share price of $324.96 in the note.
Three new iPhones and a first foldable
KeyBanc expects Apple to unveil three new iPhones at the event: the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and a first-generation foldable iPhone, referred to as the Fold/Ultra. It also expects two new Apple Watch models, new AirPods and further clarity on the timing of iOS 27.
The iPhone 18 Pro is expected to retain a 6.3-inch display while gaining an A20 Pro chip, a C2 modem and a variable-aperture camera. The Pro Max is expected to keep its 6.9-inch display and receive a larger battery, while the Fold/Ultra could feature a 5.5-inch display when closed and a 7.8-inch screen when opened.
Builds fall short of last year's launch
KeyBanc expects total iPhone 18 builds at about 80 million units in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and first quarter of fiscal 2027, down from roughly 91 million a year earlier. It attributed the expected decline largely to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model, with higher pricing and a richer product mix expected to partly offset lower volumes.
The brokerage models a $150 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro to $1,249, a $200 increase for the Pro Max to $1,399, and a $2,199 price for the Fold/Ultra.
Apple shares often dip around launch day
Apple shares have tended to weaken around iPhone announcements, according to KeyBanc. The stock has averaged a 0.72% decline on the announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later.
Source: Investing.com
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