Nasdaq-100 futures fell Wednesday as Brent crude topped $100 a barrel, even as the index sits on a 17% year-to-date gain. That gain still trails the small-cap Russell 2000, and a Federal Reserve meeting next week could decide whether the gap widens or closes.
Nasdaq-100 futures slip as oil surges
Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.4% Wednesday morning, alongside Dow Jones futures down 0.4% and S&P 500 futures off 0.25%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped nearly 3% to top $100 a barrel for the first time since July.
The pressure built on a weak Tuesday session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 sank 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite gave up 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.805%, its highest settlement in nearly three years.
Small caps still outrun the Nasdaq-100 in 2026
Despite Wednesday's pullback, the Nasdaq-100 has returned 17% so far in 2026, as of the market close on Friday, Sept. 4. The S&P 500 gained 12.7% over the same stretch. Yet both trail the small-cap Russell 2000, which is sitting on a 20.2% year-to-date gain.
Russell 2000 members typically generate most of their revenue inside the U.S., which insulates them from geopolitical headwinds that weigh on larger, multinational companies.
A Fed decision looms as the next test
That edge could narrow next week. The Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on Sept. 15 and 16 as it attempts to tame inflation, and the CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the odds of a rate hike at 59%.
Roughly 32% of Russell 2000 companies hold floating rate debt, according to Goldman Sachs, compared with just 6% of S&P 500 companies. An interest rate hike would therefore weigh more heavily on small-cap earnings, and could bring the Russell's recent outperformance to an abrupt end.
Over the long run, the pattern still favors the mega-cap indexes: an investor holding the Russell 2000 for the past decade would have earned a 139% return, versus 254% for the S&P 500 and 515% for the Nasdaq.
Sources: The Motley Fool, Investor's Business Daily
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