None of the S&P 500's 681 completed 20-year stretches since 1950 finished lower on price alone. The weakest, from March 1962 to March 1982, gained about 61%, but inflation took back almost all of its dividend-boosted return.
Not one of 681 completed 20-year stretches finished lower in the S&P 500, on price alone. The Motley Fool's Daniel Sparks used month-end closes from January 1950 and paired each with the close exactly 20 years later, through September 2026.
Even the weakest stretch made money. From the end of March 1962 to the end of March 1982, the index rose from about 70 to about 112, a gain of about 61%, or roughly 2.4% a year before dividends.
Why 1962 to 1982 was so weak
The stretch was unlucky at both ends. It started around 4% under a record close from December 1961, and by late June 1962 the index had fallen about 28% from that high.
The middle was also tough. The index hit a record in January 1973 and then lost almost half its value by October 1974.
Dividends help, inflation takes it back
Price alone misses a big chunk of the payoff. The index's dividend yield was around 2.9% in March 1962 and about 6% by March 1982, going by Shiller's data. With reinvested dividends, the stretch had a total return of around 237%, or about 6.3% a year.
However, inflation took almost all of that back. The Consumer Price Index climbed from 30.1 in March 1962 to 94.5 in March 1982, so prices more than tripled. After inflation, Shiller's data puts the total return at only around 7% for all 20 years.
Most stretches did much better
The median 20-year gain was about 279% on price, or around 6.9% a year, and about 94% of the 681 stretches at least doubled. The best, from March 1980 to March 2000, gained about 1,370%.
Buying near a high did not break the record, either. In 321 of the 681 stretches, the index began within 5% of its record close at the time. All 321 finished higher, but their median gain was lower, at around 219%.
Source: The Motley Fool
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