Nvidia CFO Colette Kress issued the company's first-ever year-ahead revenue forecast, guiding for 70% growth in fiscal 2028 versus a 44% average analyst estimate. Applied to current consensus, that guidance implies fiscal 2028 revenue near $673 billion to $700 billion, putting Nvidia ahead of Apple and Alphabet and behind only Amazon among U.S. tech companies by revenue.
Nvidia told investors fiscal 2028 revenue growth will reach 70%, far above the 44% average analyst estimate tracked by LSEG. CFO Colette Kress delivered the guidance on August 26, marking the company's first-ever year-ahead revenue forecast. Applied to the roughly $396 billion consensus estimate for fiscal 2027, that guidance implies fiscal 2028 revenue near $673 billion to $700 billion, a figure that would put Nvidia ahead of Apple and Alphabet and behind only Amazon among U.S. tech companies by revenue.
The quarter behind the guidance
The forecast followed fiscal second-quarter results that beat expectations across the board: revenue more than doubled to $96.22 billion, up 106% year over year, with data center revenue of $89 billion, up 117%, now making up 92% of total sales. Nvidia also guided current-quarter revenue to $108 billion, give or take 2%, with gross margins expected to hold around 74% before drifting to 71-72% in subsequent quarters. Shares jumped roughly 8.7% on the news, lifting the broader semiconductor sector.
Supply, not demand, sets the ceiling
CEO Jensen Huang told investors AI has reached the point where it is doing productive, profitable work, and that computing capacity itself is now translating directly into revenue. Management said the 70% figure reflects supply constraints, primarily memory component shortages, rather than a ceiling on actual demand, and the outlook excludes China data center revenue. According to Insider Monkey, Huang described the unconstrained growth rate as "a lot higher" than 70%, with memory supply the actual limiting factor.
Wall Street flags the lack of a track record
Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon noted the 70% figure represents roughly a $200 billion uptick versus Nvidia's prior outlook, and because this is the company's first year-ahead guide ever, there is no track record yet to judge how dependable its long-range forecasting actually is. Server DRAM prices, already up 64% in the second half of last year, are projected to jump another 260% in 2026. Nvidia's supply commitments more than doubled to $279 billion in a single quarter, up from $119 billion, with most of the increase tied to memory procurement.
Sources: Insider Monkey, Crypto Briefing
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