Oil rose more than $1 a barrel on Monday after the US and Iran exchanged strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, fueling fears of a longer supply disruption from the Middle East. Brent climbed above $97 and WTI topped $92, extending last week's gains, while OPEC+ left its output policy unchanged for October.
Tanker strikes push Brent above $97
Brent crude futures climbed $1.20, or 1.25%, to $97.48 a barrel by 0727 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $92.62 a barrel, up 1.25%. The moves extend a run that saw Brent rise 7.8% last week while WTI gained nearly 10% after the US and Iran resumed attacks on shipping.
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, according to US Central Command, including one near Iran's Kharg Island export hub. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said it hit three tankers travelling unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, plus three more US vessels elsewhere. According to Marisks: "major escalation in the maritime conflict".
Tanker traffic slows to lowest since May
Average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just 10 commodity ships over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to analytics firm Kpler. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said a restricted zone will be announced outside the strait in the coming days, according to state media.
Yet the market disruption remains partial. Oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is averaging a little more than 9 million barrels a day, the US energy secretary said, made possible by US Navy escorts. Speculators have already positioned for further tightness: net long positions in ICE Brent rose by 37,837 lots to 261,435 lots as of last Tuesday, with most of the increase coming from short covering rather than fresh buying.
OPEC+ holds output steady as recovery timeline slips
OPEC+ kept its output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, the producer group said, as it still needs to agree new quotas before its next move. ANZ analysts said a prolonged standoff with calibrated military action between the US and Iran appears the most likely scenario, delaying a full recovery of Middle East supply. They expect exports to stay constrained through the rest of 2026, with a gradual reopening late in the fourth quarter and a return to pre-war throughput not expected until late Q1 or early Q2 2027.
Sources: Reuters via Investing.com, ING via Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
