The rouble-denominated price of Russian oil used for tax calculations has averaged about 60% above the federal budget assumption so far in October. War in the Middle East and related supply disruption have kept global oil prices above $100 per barrel, while Russia's budget deficit is expected to reach 3% of GDP in 2026.
The tax price of Russian oil averaged 8,699 roubles ($103.4) per barrel in the first three weeks of October, about 11% higher than in September. Calculations published Wednesday show the average sits about 60% above the level assumed in the federal budget.
War in the Middle East and related supply disruption have kept global oil prices above $100 per barrel. If oil prices and the rouble hold steady until the end of the month, the tax price would average 8,387 roubles ($100.2) per barrel, the highest level since March 2022.
Budget assumed $59 per barrel
For its revenue calculations, the government assumed a Russian oil price of $59 per barrel and an exchange rate of 92.2 roubles to the dollar, equivalent to 5,440 roubles per barrel.
Russia expects a budget deficit equal to 3% of gross domestic product in 2026, almost double its original target and higher than last year. The government raised taxes this year to help fund spending on the war in Ukraine and had aimed to cut the deficit to 1.6% of GDP from 2.6% in 2025.
The deficit for January to August had already reached 2.5% of GDP.
Source: Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
