A U.S.-brokered deal for NABEP to develop 17 Venezuelan oil fields could involve $100 billion in investment, though Rystad Energy calls that figure a long-term funding requirement rather than committed capital. New concessions and returning majors aim to lift Venezuela's crude output from 1.25 million barrels a day today to 2.58 million bpd by 2035, but the country currently has just two active drilling rigs.
The Trump administration is promoting the restructuring as a major opportunity to revive output in the country holding the world's largest crude reserves. The overhaul pushed Russian and Chinese companies out of previously awarded concessions and triggered deals with oil majors, service providers and newcomers aimed at raising production and exporting more crude to the United States.
A $100 billion mega-deal with NABEP
The centerpiece is a deal with privately held North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), announced by the White House last month as the biggest oil deal in world history. New interim Venezuelan authorities granted NABEP, led by Alejandro Betancourt, 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields holding roughly 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, a deal that could involve $100 billion in new infrastructure investment. NABEP says it aims to rapidly expand operations in Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt, with a near-term goal of production above one million bpd.
However, Rystad Energy cautioned that NABEP's $100 billion figure is a long-term funding requirement rather than committed near-term capital, noting the company has not disclosed a financing structure and that it favors investment tied to established operators over larger, capital-heavy ambitions.
Rig count far short of what's needed
Venezuela's output is projected to climb to about 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, reaching 2.58 million bpd by 2035 under Rystad's upside scenario, as greenfield projects add to brownfield-led growth. Yet decades of mismanagement have left infrastructure degraded, and as of August, when the NABEP deal was announced, Venezuela had just two active drilling rigs, according to Baker Hughes data. To hit Rystad's 2028 and 2030 targets, rig activity would need to climb to around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030.
Radhika Bansal, senior vice president for oil and gas at Rystad Energy, said some newly identified opportunities were previously tied to Russian and Chinese operators, and further restructuring of legacy positions remains possible as the new contractual framework develops.
Majors race to stake claims
Legacy producers and service providers have accelerated deal-making since the August announcement, encouraged by the shift in geopolitical alignment and President Trump's stated goal of pushing Russia and China out of the Western Hemisphere. Chevron has pledged more than $7 billion in investment over the next five years and more than doubled its Venezuelan production to about 600,000 bpd. Continental Resources this week signed a memorandum of understanding with state firm PDVSA to operate the Ayacucho 2 Block in the Orinoco Belt, holding an estimated 30 billion barrels in place, with a 100% interest. Eni signed a contract to operate the Junín-5 field, which holds 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place but currently produces only around 12,000 bpd. Halliburton and SLB have also signed deals to pursue development work and activate rigs.
Rystad Energy said the pace of Venezuela's recovery will remain conditional on actual capital deployment and the country's ability to rebuild its drilling, services and infrastructure capacity.
Source: Oilprice.com
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