The US Labor Department publishes its September jobs report today, with forecasters at Danske Bank expecting nonfarm payrolls up 100,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.0%. A string of labor-market indicators released this week points the same way, even as a key survey came in softer than expected.
Danske Bank forecasts nonfarm payrolls rising by 100,000 in today's September jobs report, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.0% from 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m. The bank thinks the labor market is heating up, even though Tuesday's JOLTS report came in softer than expected.
Other employment indicators support that view. ADP's weekly pulse and the PMI employment index have both pointed to solid September job growth.
Jobless claims fall to their lowest since early 2023
Weekly data released yesterday reinforce the picture of a tight labor market. Continued jobless claims fell to 1.701 million, below the 1.725 million consensus. New claims came in at 197,000 against a 200,000 forecast, leaving continuing claims at their lowest level since early 2023. A low labor-force participation rate alongside strong job growth supports a further drop in unemployment.
ISM cools, but price pressures build
However, not every signal pointed the same direction. The ISM survey for September fell to 54.5, below the 55.0 consensus, though the reading remains solidly in expansionary territory. Notably, the ISM price index increased to 77.9, well above the 72.3 consensus.
Fed signals patience as rate-hike bets fade
Federal Reserve's Jefferson, a permanent voter, echoed Williams' message from Tuesday that the Fed could take more time before deciding its next move on rates. Markets reacted by sending the probability of an October rate hike below 30%, down from around 35% before the statement.
Equities held broadly steady ahead of the report. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq was slightly positive. The Russell 2000 gained 0.4%, with US futures up 0.3% overnight as traders wait for today's release.
Source: ActionForex
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