USD/CAD reversed higher after a Monday break below key short-term support failed to attract follow-through selling, sending the pair to a fresh monthly high of 1.4224. The pair is now approaching the June and early July highs near 1.42385-1.42474, the next major resistance zone on the way toward its strongest level since April 2025.
Sellers had their chance to interrupt the pair's uptrend, and they missed it. USD/CAD broke below a rising trendline near 1.4192 during the late Asian-Pacific and early European sessions, then extended the decline below the 100-hour moving average to a session low.
The downside break failed to find follow-through
The selling pushed the pair below its 100-hour moving average, then at 1.4168, and down to a session low of 1.4155. That opened the door for sellers, but they needed continued momentum toward the swing area between 1.41297 and 1.41488 to confirm control.
That follow-through never arrived. The price stalled before reaching that swing area and reversed higher, carrying the pair back above both the 100-hour moving average and the broken trendline. Over the following six hours, the rebound extended into a new monthly high at 1.4224.
Buyers eye the next resistance band
The rally now sits just below the June and early July highs between 1.42385 and 1.42474, the next key test for buyers. USD/CAD has climbed from 1.3759 at its September 8 low to Monday's peak, a gain of 465 pips, or approximately 3.38%, so some traders may look to take profit against the prior highs while others lean against the area to define risk.
A sustained break above 1.42474 would put the pair at its highest level since April 2025. That would open the path toward 1.42928, the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the February 2025 high to the January 2026 low.
What would shift control back to sellers
On a pullback, the trendline is the first reference, with the 100-hour moving average below it as the key short-term barometer. That trendline sits near 1.4192, with the 100-hour moving average at 1.4168.
A sustained move back under that average would weaken the renewed bullish bias, and sellers would then need to push below today's 1.4155 low to show they can build on the break.
That scenario would bring the 1.41297-1.41488 swing area back into focus.
Source: investingLive
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