US Vice President JD Vance says Iran must make a meaningful cut to its uranium enrichment capacity to meet US demands and end the countries' seven-month war. Since the US and Israeli strikes last year hit Iran's known enrichment sites, the IAEA still does not know how much of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile survived or where it is.
Vance told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran must make a meaningful reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the seven-month war between the two countries. He did not specify what level of reduction would be enough.
What the bombing destroyed
The demand follows a 12-day campaign that began June 13 of last year, when Israel struck Iran's nuclear facilities and the United States soon joined in. The strikes destroyed or badly damaged the three uranium-enrichment facilities known to be operating in Iran at the time.
Israel and the US argued Iran was getting too close to building a nuclear weapon, but the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had no credible indication of a coordinated weapons programme. Iran was, however, enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, a short step from the roughly 90% needed for weapons grade. The IAEA estimated Iran held 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% when the first bombs fell, enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons by the agency's own yardstick.
What remains unknown
Iran has not told the IAEA how much of its enriched uranium survived the attacks, nor where it is, and has not let inspectors return to the bombed sites. The above-ground enrichment plant at Natanz was destroyed, while the two other plants at Natanz and Fordow were at least badly damaged and are widely believed to be out of action.
The day before Israel attacked, Iran had told the IAEA it was opening a new enrichment plant at Isfahan, inside a tunnel network that diplomats say appears largely unscathed by the bombing. The agency says it does not know the plant's status or whether it holds nuclear material. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said in March his agency believes, according to Reuters: "a bit more than 200 kg" of Iran's 60%-enriched uranium remains in the Isfahan tunnel complex, with some also still at Natanz.
How Iran could cut capacity
Even Israel does not currently allege that Iran is enriching uranium. Yet as long as a significant share of its 60% stockpile remains intact, Iran could in principle move to weapons grade with relatively little effort and few centrifuges. A 2015 deal had given the IAEA extra inspection powers, including oversight of Iran's centrifuges and their parts, but the agency lost track of those machines after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the deal in 2018. Their current number and location are unknown.
Because Iran is not currently known to be enriching, any reduction Washington accepts is likely to be measured against its earlier capacity. That could mean lower purity, lower output, or fewer enrichment sites.
Source: Investing.com
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