Wall Street's average price target for Eli Lilly now sits 11% above its current share price, and most analysts covering the stock rate it a buy. The bullish calls follow tirzepatide's rise past Merck's Keytruda as the world's best-selling drug, even as Lilly's own stock has lagged the broader market this year.
Analysts see modest upside from here
The average price target for Eli Lilly shares sits at $1,325, about 11% above the current price of $1,193. Of the 30 major analysts covering the stock, 25 recommend a "buy" or "strong buy". Citigroup is the most bullish, with a buy rating and a $1,600 price target. HSBC is the most bearish, with a reduce rating and a $940 target.
A rally that has cooled in 2026
Eli Lilly has climbed 410% over the past five years and 58% over the past 52 weeks. This year, though, the stock is up just 10.1%. That trails the S&P 500's roughly 12.5% gain so far in 2026. The stock trades at about 40 times trailing earnings.
Tirzepatide overtakes Keytruda
In Q3 2025, Lilly's tirzepatide overtook Merck's Keytruda as the top-selling drug worldwide. The GLP-1 dual receptor agonist is sold as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss. Morgan Stanley projects the GLP-1 market will reach $190 billion by 2045, more than double its 2025 level. The bank raised its forecast by $40 billion on the launch of oral therapies and expanded Medicare coverage.
Patents extend into the late 2030s
Some analysts are likely concerned that Lilly's dominance in the GLP-1 market won't last. Novo Nordisk, Lilly's main GLP-1 rival, has developed its own oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug called Wegovy. But Lilly's tirzepatide patents extend into the late 2030s, and the company holds follow-on patents covering delivery devices, formulations and treatment methods.
Source: The Motley Fool
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
