The world's diesel and jet-fuel shortage did not start with the 2026 Middle East disruption — it traces back to at least 2020, according to an analysis by energy writer Gail Tverberg. She links the shortfall to a structural shift toward lighter, easier-to-extract crude and falling per-capita consumption of middle distillates in advanced economies.
Tverberg argues the current shortage is not simply the result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, she traces it to a decades-long shift in the oil supply mix: producers have moved toward lighter crude oil, which yields more gasoline, while diesel and jet fuel come disproportionately from heavier, costlier-to-process oil.
Consumption plateaued after 2005
Per capita world consumption of diesel and jet fuel stopped growing around 2005, the year Tverberg identifies as the peak of conventional, easy-to-extract oil output. Consumption then plateaued until about 2019, before it fell 16% in 2020 and has not fully recovered since.
Heavy and sour crude grades disproportionately produce diesel and jet fuel, but they cost more to extract, refine and transport than lighter grades. Tverberg writes that it has been difficult for producers to pass those higher costs on to buyers, since doing so would also push up food prices, given diesel's role in farming and transport.
Heavy oil reserves exist, but at a cost
Citing 2015 International Energy Agency estimates, Tverberg notes large deposits of extra-heavy oil and bitumen could be tapped if diesel and jet-fuel prices stayed high enough for long enough to justify the investment. She points to early heavy-oil production history as precedent: commercial extraction began in California's Kern River Basin in 1899, and in Canada's oil sands in 1967.
She argues current elevated diesel and jet-fuel prices are at least partly due to higher insurance and shipping costs tied to avoiding blocked straits, and that these extra costs don't reach producers in a way that creates the incentive needed to expand heavy-oil output.
A longer-term shift, not a quick fix
Tverberg expects no short-term solution. Instead, she argues economies will likely need to reduce diesel and jet-fuel use over time, including through shorter supply chains, while also investing in cheaper extraction of heavy oil and bitumen. She adds that oil-exporting countries will likely need to change in ways that reduce their need for tax revenue, since consumers want diesel and jet-fuel prices low while producers want them high enough to justify new investment.
Source: OilPrice.com
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