WTI crude oil extended its rebound after President Trump signaled the Iran war would not end soon, triggering more short-covering and a technical breakout above the $93 level. The move opens the door to a run back toward $100, but the outlook now hinges on the timing of de-escalation.
Crude oil extended its gains as short-covering continued after Trump poured cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war. The reversal follows a stretch of declines driven by hopes of de-escalation and improvements on the Saudi Arabia oil pipeline and export side.
Trump comments reprice the war timeline
At the UN General Assembly, Trump repeated that the US would make a deal with Iran after the November elections. Traders had priced in an earlier resolution, but as that expectation faded, crude oil prices began rising again.
Technical breakout lifts bullish momentum
WTI also posted a technical breakout this morning, rising back above the major 93.00 zone and extending its gains, which strengthened bullish momentum and opened the door for a move back above the $100 level. Buyers are likely to pile in around current levels with defined risk below support, targeting a rally into the 105.00 resistance level. Sellers, in turn, need a drop back below 93.00 to regain control and target the lower bound of the channel near 85.00.
On the four-hour chart, price broke above the downward trendline that had defined the recent bearish momentum, while the one-hour chart now shows a minor upward trendline supporting the bullish move.
What happens next
Trump faces multiple constraints, so an eventual end to the war looks more likely than not — the open question is timing. If markets sense an earlier resolution or a surprise breakthrough, crude oil could resume its decline. Conversely, if tensions persist or re-escalate, WTI should stay supported into new highs.
Today's catalysts include the Trump-Xi meeting and US jobless claims data, but the market's focus stays on US-Iran developments.
Source: Investinglive
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