FTSE 100 Forecast 2026, 2027–2030

The FTSE 100 closed at 10,733 on 20 October 2026, up about 8% on the year and roughly 1.6% below the record close of 10,910.55 it set on 27 February. The index (traded on PrimeXBT as UK100) tracks the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange by market capitalisation, calculated by FTSE Russell, and it is the main gauge of the UK stock market. Its make-up sets it apart from Wall Street: the index leans on banks, oil majors, miners, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples rather than technology. This page sets out PrimeXBT’s FTSE 100 forecast for 2026 through 2030 and beyond, the targets published by banks, the levels on the chart, and the dated events that can move the index. Each figure is a range, because the index sits one week away from a UK Budget and two weeks from a likely interest-rate rise, and a single number would pretend those events are already priced.

FTSE 100 outlook at a glance

• 2026 base case: roughly 10,440–11,310 points for November and December, with a year-end central estimate near 10,900.
• What the banks say: current year-end 2026 targets run from 9,800 (BofA, May) to 11,390 (HSBC, September), and the most recent calls cluster at 11,200–11,400.
• Biggest downside risk: a further jump in gilt yields around the 28 October Budget and the 5 November Bank of England meeting, with a close below the 200-day average near 10,500 weakening the uptrend.
• Long-term view: the outlook compounds the index at a slower pace than its own history, and figures past 2030 describe a direction of travel rather than dated targets.

Live FTSE 100 chart

Today (31 October 2026) the FTSE 100 (UK100) is trading at 10,722.56 points, -0.11% over the last 24 hours.

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FTSE 100 forecast 2026–2030

PrimeXBT’s expected range for the FTSE 100 in each year from 2026 to 2030 is shown below, in index points. Published bank targets rest on their own earnings and valuation assumptions and are listed separately in the analyst section.

Two forces shape that path. Earnings are rising quickly for a market this mature: UBS lifted its 2026 UK profit growth estimate to 16% from 11% in August, mostly because higher oil prices flatter the energy majors. Against that, the cost of money is climbing. The UK 10-year gilt yield averaged 5.24% in September, the highest monthly average since 2007 in the OECD series published by FRED, and stood near 5.34% in mid-October, according to Reuters. A higher discount rate caps what investors pay for each pound of profit, so the forecast lets earnings lift the index while the valuation multiple stays roughly where it is.

FTSE 100 forecast 2026

PrimeXBT’s base case puts the FTSE 100 near 10,900 at the end of 2026, within a range of about 10,440 to 11,310 for the last two months of the year. That sits below the 11,200–11,390 cluster of the latest bank targets, because the outlook gives more weight than those calls to the risk of a hawkish Budget reaction and a Bank of England rate rise landing eight days apart. October is left out: the month is mostly history already, and the table covers forward months only.

November carries the heavier event load. The Monetary Policy Report on 5 November will show how far the Bank expects to tighten, and the October inflation figures follow on 18 November. December brings the FTSE quarterly review, announced on 2 December and effective on 21 December.

FTSE 100 forecast 2027

PrimeXBT’s FTSE 100 forecast for 2027 runs from about 10,512 to 12,276, averaging near 11,225, with the central path rising from roughly 10,950 in January to 11,500 by December. That December figure assumes 2027 earnings growth of around 5% to 9%, the span between HSBC’s 5% forecast for the FTSE 100 and UBS’s estimate of about 9% for UK earnings, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio held close to 13 times.

Two published calls give a cross-check. Goldman Sachs’ 12-month target of 11,400, set in August 2026, points to the same area by late summer 2027, and UBS sees 11,500 by June 2027. PrimeXBT’s path reaches those levels a few months later. 2027 is also when the 2026 oil windfall drops out of the comparison base, so the earnings line has less help from energy.

FTSE 100 forecast 2028–2030

From 2028 the forecast compounds instead of timing events. PrimeXBT grows the FTSE 100 at 4% a year in price terms from the end-2027 anchor, which gives an average near 11,960 in 2028, 12,438 in 2029 and 12,936 in 2030, with the band widening from 10% to 12% either side.

The 4% is below the record. From its launch at a base of 1,000 in January 1984, the index has compounded at about 5.7% a year on price alone, and at about 4.8% a year over the ten calendar years to the end of 2025, according to PrimeXBT’s calculation from daily closing data. Dividends sit on top of those figures: AJ Bell’s September dividend dashboard puts the forward yield at 3.3%, which is why price growth for the FTSE 100 has historically been the smaller half of what holders of the underlying shares received.

FTSE 100 long-term forecast: 2035, 2040, 2050

A forecast for the 2040s cannot say which companies will be in the index, because FTSE Russell reshuffles its membership every quarter. What it can show is the arithmetic of slow compounding. Extending the path at 3.5% a year from 2030 gives the following:

The 2050 maximum is almost double the minimum. That spread is the useful part of the table, not the midpoint.

What the banks expect for the FTSE 100

Published year-end 2026 targets for the FTSE 100 span 1,590 points, from BofA’s 9,800 to HSBC’s 11,390. Far fewer firms publish a number for the UK benchmark than for the S&P 500, and several of the calls below were set months ago, so the date column matters as much as the target.

The three most recent calls sit within 200 points of each other, at 11,200 to 11,400, and imply roughly 4% to 6% upside from the 20 October close. The two outliers are mostly a matter of timing. AJ Bell’s 10,750 was set ten months ago, before a 10% rise in the index, and BofA’s 9,800 came in May, with the index already above 10,000. No Reuters poll median for the FTSE 100 could be found for this update, so the list stands on its own.

The firms also disagree about earnings. UBS raised its 2026 UK profit growth estimate to 16% and expects about 9% in 2027, yet still rates the UK neutral against other regions. HSBC expects FTSE 100 earnings to grow just 5% in 2027, against 14% for the domestically focused FTSE 250. Goldman’s August note named a prolonged energy crisis as a major risk for Europe.

Track record of this forecast

This is the first published PrimeXBT forecast for the FTSE 100. From the next monthly review onward, this section will compare the previous forecast against the index’s actual level on the update date and explain any miss rather than smoothing it over.

FTSE 100 technical analysis

The FTSE 100 closed on 20 October 2026 just above its 50-day moving average near 10,710, above the 100-day near 10,640 and comfortably above the 200-day near 10,500, according to PrimeXBT’s calculation from daily closes of the cash index. The 50-day sits above the 200-day, so the longer trend still points up, but the index has spent three months moving sideways under its highs.

Support starts at the 100-day average near 10,640, then the 200-day near 10,500, then the early-October low, where the index closed at 10,428 on 1 October and traded intraday down to roughly 10,370. On the upside, resistance begins at 10,880–10,890, where the rally stalled on 16 October, followed by the record close of 10,910.55. Above that, the intraday peak just under 11,000 from late July marks the last barrier before the round number.

Momentum is neutral. The 14-day RSI reads about 54 on daily closes, which leaves room in both directions. These readings are as of publication and are revised at each monthly update.

FTSE 100 correlation with other assets

Over the past year the FTSE 100 has moved most closely with other European markets: weekly returns tracked the DAX and the FTSE 250 with a correlation above 0.7, while the link to the S&P 500 was weaker, at about 0.3, according to PrimeXBT’s calculation. Rising bond yields and a rising VIX both lined up with weaker weeks for the index. Oil is the surprise. The index holds two oil majors, yet in the past 12 months Brent rallies tended to coincide with down weeks for the FTSE 100, because the oil spike tied to the conflict with Iran has acted as an inflation and interest-rate shock for the whole market.

The currency link is the textbook argument for the FTSE 100: Schroders estimates that around 70% of the revenue of index constituents comes from outside the UK, so a weaker pound raises the sterling value of those earnings. In the weekly data of the past one and three years, though, the FTSE 100 and GBP/USD show almost no correlation, and no reliable recent source puts a stable figure on it. Gold and bitcoin have shown only loose positive links. Treat all of this as the current regime, since an energy shock rearranges which assets travel together.

Fundamental factors

Valuation is the FTSE 100’s main argument. AJ Bell’s September dividend dashboard puts the index on 13.5 times forward earnings with a 3.3% forward dividend yield. UBS, using a slightly different earnings base, puts the UK market on 12.7 times forecast earnings against a median of 12.8 times since 1990. Both readings sit close to that long-run median, so the valuation case rests on the dividend yield and cash returns rather than on a deep discount to history.

Cash returns are large. Analyst forecasts compiled by AJ Bell point to record ordinary dividends of £90.3 billion for 2026 and total cash returns, including buybacks and special dividends, of about £138 billion, or 5.1% of the index’s market value. That flow supports the shares in weak markets, though it also means less of the index’s total return shows up in the price level that this forecast measures.

Composition explains why the index behaves differently from US benchmarks. The largest constituents include AstraZeneca, Shell, HSBC, Unilever and Rolls-Royce, so pharmaceuticals, energy, banking, consumer staples and aerospace carry the index. The FTSE 100 is reviewed quarterly by FTSE Russell, and the September review brought in easyJet and Ithaca Energy in place of Entain and Persimmon.

Domestic policy is the swing factor for the next two months. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September, with three of nine members voting for a rise. UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, and 54 of 63 economists in a Reuters poll published on 15 October expect a quarter-point rise to 4% on 5 November. Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget on 28 October, and reports from the BBC and the Guardian say the bank surcharge could be raised, a direct risk for one of the index’s largest sectors.

Upcoming catalysts

Only confirmed, dated events are listed.

Bank of England dates follow the Bank’s published 2026 schedule, CPI dates the ONS release calendar, FOMC dates the Federal Reserve’s 2026 calendar, and review dates the FTSE Russell 2026 schedule for the UK index series.

Bull case vs bear case

Bull case:

• UBS sees UK earnings growth of 16% in 2026, and the three latest bank targets cluster 4% to 6% above the current level.
• A forward multiple of 12.7 to 13.5 times keeps the index close to its median valuation since 1990, with a 3.3% forward dividend yield on top.
• Record dividends and buybacks, worth about 5.1% of market value in 2026 according to AJ Bell, return cash to shareholders regardless of the price trend.
• A Budget that keeps to the fiscal rules, as Healey has pledged, could ease pressure on gilt yields.

Bear case:

• Gilt yields above 5% leave little room if the Budget disappoints bond investors.
• A higher bank surcharge would hit one of the index’s heaviest sectors directly.
• The Bank of England is moving toward tighter policy while inflation runs at 3.1%, and markets price more rises than economists expect.
• HSBC sees FTSE 100 earnings growth slowing to 5% in 2027 once the oil windfall fades.

Invalidation levels. The constructive case loses its footing on a sustained close below the 200-day average near 10,500, which would bring the early-October lows around 10,370–10,430 back into play. The cautious case is invalidated by a weekly close above the record close of 10,910.55, about 1.7% above the 20 October level, which would open the way toward 11,000.

Will the stock market crash in 2026?

No forecast reviewed for this page, PrimeXBT’s included, points to a crash in the rest of 2026, and none can rule one out. History gives the base rates: the FTSE 100 ended higher in 30 of the 41 calendar years from 1985 to 2025 on a price basis, according to PrimeXBT’s calculation from closing data.

Large declines have happened, and they have been deep. On closing prices, the index fell about 36% in the 1987 crash, 53% from the end of 1999 to March 2003, 48% from June 2007 to March 2009, and 35% in the two months to 23 March 2020. Among the banks, UBS sets out a downside scenario of 7,700 by June 2027, a fall of roughly 28% from the current level, as a risk case rather than its forecast.

The difference between a correction of 10% to 20% and a bear market is worth keeping in mind. A 10% fall from the record close would take the FTSE 100 to about 9,820, close to where the index started 2026.

FTSE 100 historical performance

FTSE 100 price returns by calendar year since 2017 read: 7.6%, −12.5%, 12.1%, −14.3%, 14.3%, 0.9%, 3.8%, 5.7% and 21.5% in 2025, with 8.1% so far in 2026 to 20 October. These are price returns without dividends, calculated by PrimeXBT from closing levels; dividends, which yield about 3.3% on current forecasts, come on top for holders of the underlying shares. The two losing years in that run, 2018 and 2020, were both followed by double-digit gains the next year.

Is the FTSE 100 a good investment in 2026?

The FTSE 100 enters the last part of 2026 up about 8% on the year, on a forward multiple near 13 times and paying out record dividends, while facing a Budget and a probable rate rise within eight days. Those facts cut both ways, and which matters more depends on the time horizon in question.

Owning the index through a fund and trading a FTSE 100 CFD with leverage are different activities with different risks. A fund holder collects the dividends that make up a large share of the index’s long-run return. A CFD position does not deliver the shares themselves, carries overnight financing costs, and can lose more quickly than the index moves. PrimeXBT offers the second, and a view on where the index sits in 2030 says nothing about the right size for a leveraged position today.

How to trade the FTSE 100 on PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT lists the FTSE 100 as the index CFD UK100, quoted in pounds, with the live price and trading conditions on its UK100 chart page. A CFD can be used to take a long or a short position, so the mechanics do not depend on which way any forecast points. PrimeXBT’s guide to index trading covers the setup.

Index CFDs behave differently from crypto. The UK100 trading conditions list a daily break in trading, so prices can gap between sessions and a stop can fill beyond its level. Positions held overnight accrue a financing charge, and spreads can widen outside the main London session, as explained in PrimeXBT’s breakdown of index CFD spreads. Leverage magnifies gains and losses alike, so position sizing and a stop-loss matter on any trade. Trade on your own analysis and risk tolerance, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

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How we build this forecast

PrimeXBT’s analysts build this outlook from published inputs rather than from an automated feed. The 2026 anchor starts from the index’s closing level and the spread of dated bank targets, adjusted for how much weight we give to gilt yields, the Budget and the Bank of England. The 2027 anchor combines published earnings growth estimates with a forward multiple near the index’s long-run median. Beyond that, the path compounds at 4% a year, below the index’s price history since 1984, and then at 3.5% for the long-term table, with bands that widen as the horizon lengthens.

None of this is a guarantee. Equity forecasts depend on earnings, policy and liquidity, and a single fiscal or energy shock can move the index faster than any model allows. Treat every figure here as a considered estimate rather than a promise. The outlook is reviewed and updated monthly as the data changes.