Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday after mixed US economic data left investors uncertain about the path of interest rates. Job openings cooled, but consumer inflation expectations rose, while surging Treasury yields and US-Iran tensions added further pressure on the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday, and a reclaim of the $84,000 support level now depends more on the path of yields and new demand than on a single jobs report. The labor and consumer surveys released that day describe different pressures, and neither alone explains the move.
Job openings ease, but rate worries rise
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August job openings were little changed at 7.1 million, down from a revised 7.3 million in July. Hires, quits, and layoffs were all little changed, pointing to somewhat softer demand for workers.
Yet the Conference Board's September consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 from 88.6 in August, declining for a third straight month. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months rose 5.2% to 68.4%, while average expected inflation over that horizon rose to 6.1%.
Yields and Iran tensions add pressure
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields soared to a 19-year high in September after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points and presented a hawkish outlook in the face of sticky inflation. Oil prices also rose sharply this week amid little progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Higher rates bode poorly for speculative assets like crypto, given that they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the sector over debt. Treasury securities offer substantial yields, while Bitcoin itself pays no coupon, according to CryptoSlate.
ETF flows and the next data tests
The Sept. 28 US-traded spot Bitcoin ETF market posted a positive net inflow of $31 million, smaller than each of the five preceding completed sessions, according to Farside Investors. Stronger inflows in completed sessions would show buyers returning even while yields remain elevated.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish August personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation data, on Sept. 30, with the September employment report following on Oct. 2. A cooler inflation reading alongside orderly hiring would strengthen the case for lower yields; a hot print or persistently high yields would weaken it.
Sources: CryptoSlate, Cryptocurrency News
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