Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 0.5, the highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise. The shift comes as U.S. national debt tops $40 trillion and the Treasury moves to double its long-bond buybacks. Bitwise's chief investment officer frames the trend as a choice between two trades: AI stocks or bitcoin.
The Hard-Asset Handshake
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has pushed above 0.5 for only the second time on record, based on Bitwise data running from April 2015 through Aug. 31, 2026. The previous peak came in 2020, during the fiscal and monetary stimulus of the Covid crisis. Readings between -0.5 and 0.5 traditionally count as low or no correlation, so the current level marks a rare crossing into meaningful co-movement.
Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch said the shift points to some decoupling between hard assets and the stock market. That break shows up elsewhere too: bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the August rally, while its correlation with the dollar index turned negative. Bitcoin.com News also reported that bitcoin's 90-day link to the Nasdaq 100 had fallen from above 60% to roughly 33% as the debasement trade revived.
Hougan's Two-Scenario Map
The backdrop driving the shift is fiscal. U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion on Aug. 18, more than double its 2017 level. It now stands at $40.13 trillion. A day later, the Treasury said it would at least double its bond buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, starting Sept. 9.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan framed the choice in a post on X: own AI stocks if growth outpaces the debt, or bitcoin if the U.S. inflates its way out instead. Growth strong enough to shrink the debt burden would reward chip and data-center suppliers, he added, while inflating the debt away favors an asset with a fixed 21 million supply.
Dragosch's own read is that the market has stopped choosing between the two. According to Dragosch: "They're simply hedging with both."
Where the Two Assets Stand
Bitcoin trades just above $81,000, up nearly 5% over 24 hours, after touching $82,000 the previous day.
Gold rebounded about 2% on Sept. 3 to roughly $4,490 an ounce as Treasury yields and the dollar eased from multi-year highs.
Not everyone expects the pairing to hold. Glassnode analysts note that sudden decorrelations from equities have historically been short-lived, reflecting local exhaustion rather than a structural regime change.
Dragosch, however, seems to be betting the other way. Bitcoin spent its first 15 years being priced as a risk asset, he wrote, and the next 15 may look very different if the correlation trend with gold holds.
Source: Bitcoin News
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