CryptoQuant says bitcoin remains in a bull market, but rising profit-taking and cooling demand suggest a correction could be near. Short-term traders' unrealized profit margin has hit a 21-month high, and holders realized their largest single-day profit of 2026 last week.
Bitcoin could face a near-term correction after short-term traders' onchain unrealized profit margin climbed to its highest level in 21 months, according to a CryptoQuant report. The firm's head of research, Julio Moreno, said bitcoin's close above its 365-day moving average last week confirmed a new bull market, and its Bitcoin Bull Score Index stands at an "extremely bullish" 90 out of 100. But after bitcoin reached an eight-month high of $87,400, several indicators now suggest the rally is losing momentum.
Profit-taking increases
Short-term traders' onchain unrealized profit margin has climbed to 33%, its highest level since December 2024. Moreno said margins at similar levels have historically encouraged traders to take profits, since more unrealized gains are available to lock in.
As a result, bitcoin holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22, the largest single day of 2026, confirming that holders were cashing out near recent highs. He noted such profit-taking after a strong rally has historically preceded local market tops.
Selling signs have also appeared in the altcoin market. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin inflow transactions rose to 76,000, the highest since Oct. 17, 2025, a date that fell 11 days after bitcoin's previous all-time high.
The number of addresses depositing altcoins on exchanges rose to 51,000 over the same period, its highest level since October 2025, a broad move rather than one driven by a few large wallets. According to Moreno: "When holders move coins to exchanges, they usually intend to sell."
Demand cools
Bitcoin demand is slowing across spot and futures markets too. Moreno said apparent spot demand has contracted by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Speculative futures demand growth, which he described as the main driver of the recent rally, slowed from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29. Without fresh demand, he said, rallies struggle to extend, and near-term upside becomes harder to sustain while spot demand stays in contraction and futures growth stalls.
Bitcoin support levels
If bitcoin corrects, Moreno sees the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as the first support level, followed by the 200-day moving average near $71,000 and the trader onchain realized price around $67,000. He said a correction toward these levels would represent a healthy consolidation within a young bull market rather than a reversal, as long as the support levels hold.
Source: The Block
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