The Dow Jones Industrial Average is holding above its September low near 51,129 even as the 10-year US Treasury yield touches its highest level since 2007. Technical analysts see the index turning bearish only if that support breaks, while a move above 51,880 would open the door to a bullish reversal.
Dow tests support near September low
The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains under pressure but has so far held above its September low at 51,129. Technical analysts say a slide through that support level could send the index toward the June low and 200-day moving average, clustered between 50,240 and 49,914.
A bullish reversal remains possible if the index clears the 25 September high at 51,880. That move could open the way toward the 22 September high at 52,324. Beyond that lies a resistance zone built from the 25 June high and the late August-to-early September lows, spanning 52,661 to 52,760. The short-term outlook stays bearish while the index trades below 51,880; the medium-term view is neutral above 51,129, turning bearish if that low gives way.
Treasury yields hit an 18-year high
Elsewhere in markets, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield held near 5.23%, its highest level since 2007. Separately, the yield was on track for a monthly rise of almost 50 basis points — the largest increase in about two years — as strained public finances, heavy debt issuance and elevated energy costs pointed to a structurally higher-yield environment. Asian stocks advanced regardless, led by Japan's Nikkei, which rose 2.1% as AI-related shares tracked a US semiconductor rally, while US and European futures edged higher on resilient earnings. The dollar remained near a 16-month high against the euro, on course for a monthly gain of around 2%. Gold steadied near $4,180 an ounce but stood 6% lower for September, as expectations of higher US interest rates reduced demand for the non-yielding metal.
Fed comments temper October hike bets
New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need to rush into further rate increases, tempering expectations of an October move. Traders still saw a December hike as almost certain ahead of Wednesday's core PCE inflation data. For now, the Dow's fate hinges on whether 51,129 holds.
Source: IG – News and trade ideas
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