Gold is holding near $4,225.76 after tumbling from a $4,755 high, caught between a small bounce and a technical downtrend. A death cross on the daily chart caps the upside just as traders wait on Wednesday's US personal consumption expenditures inflation print and Friday's payrolls report.
Gold sits at $4,225.76, down from a $4,755 high before the metal's recent slide. On the daily chart, futures showed only a small bounce off key support at $4,143.94 after a steep fall earlier in the week.
Death Cross Caps a Small Bounce
The 50-period SMA at $4,319.98 sits below the 200-SMA at $4,431.61, a death cross that keeps the broader trend bearish. A bullish engulfing candle at $4,178 hinted at a reversal attempt, and the MACD showed a bullish crossover. Yet the SuperTrend indicator and the Ichimoku cloud between $4,224 and $4,291 still sit overhead as resistance.
Even so, the $4,275–$4,320 band remains the battleground: it clusters the SuperTrend level, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and the cloud's lower edge. Bulls have not closed above it, so the broader downtrend stays intact for now.
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Swing Ahead of PCE
Traders priced in a 49.4% chance the Fed raises rates to 4.25% in October, down sharply from 74.6% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited Wednesday. Bets on a hold rose to 50.6% from 25.4% over the same period, following soft labor data and dovish comments from a Fed policymaker. Markets will now weigh Wednesday's personal consumption expenditures inflation data — the Fed's preferred gauge — against Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on the rate path.
Gold has not found a bid despite the swing in rate expectations, leaving the metal exactly where the prior session left it: stuck below resistance and waiting on Wednesday's data to break the deadlock.
Sources: Commodities Analysis & Opinion, Commodities & Futures News
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